Hot Boudin, Cold Cous-Cous...

Oregon State Fucking Owns: Sifting Through the BCS Part 3 (with Bowl Projections):

So for the first time this season, the BCS has a completely different look. Oregon State earned H2F favorite status on Saturday afternoon, all but eliminating the nightmare of having a J.D. Booty-led USC team actually facing the possibility of winning a national championship. And, contrary to many articles circulating after the weekend, the BCS picture is actually a little more clear after the Trojan loss.

It's a game with 'Trojans' and 'Beavers'... I'm lazy.

Now, the outlook is looking much better for the victor in Thursday's Mountaineers-Cardinals matchup, one which most probably will be drunkenly gamecasted by yours truly. That's right, it's Hodson to Fuller's (all but) week off from school, and you should likewise enjoy it.

I might even make purple drink Thursday night. Hope my couch doesn't get paced when the Mountaineers win (handily).

     1. Ohio State       0.9864
     2. Michigan         0.9697
     3. West Virginia    0.7862
     4. Florida          0.7791
     5. Louisville       0.7621
     6. Auburn           0.7589
     7. Texas            0.7562
     8. USC              0.7152
     9. Notre Dame       0.7151
     10. California      0.7133
     11. Tennessee       0.7000

Ohio State cruised once again, this time 44-0 over hapless Minnesota, sadly surpassing LSU in the national scoring defense rankings. Michigan, well, I can't really remember if they played or not... they 'cruised' past Northwestern 17-3. That's the thing about this Michigan team: hard to tell if they keep just simply finding ways to win ugly (Patriots-style), or if they're just not that good. I still keep convincing myself they come out of Columbus with a win, but it's getting harder and harder to justify that.

Still one of my favorite college football images. Also, 'Desmond Howard' sounds like someone who should be returning punts. 'Mario Manningham?' Eh, he should be making my Mangia pizza.

The bottom line for the week, however: tremendously great news for West Virginia and Louisville. Not only will the winner be within striking distance for the second spot after their quality win, the loser of Michigan/Ohio State should drop in a similar fashion as USC, especially when looking at the computer rankings.

                   A&H    RB    CM    KM    JS     PW
 USC BCS Week 2:   25     23    23    25    25     24
 USC BCS Week 3:   21     19    20    19    21     20

USC had a computer average that was tied for first last week, and the computer rankings, in response to the loss to a weaker Oregon State team, demoted them to a sixth-ranked computer average. Even though the loser of Michigan and Ohio State will have lost to a much, much more quality opponent, it appears that the loser's computer ranking (in addition to the human polls) will drop at least four or five spots. Thus, a conservative BCS average estimate for the loser of The Big Game would be about 0.820 (using usual data for the fourth- or fifth-ranked team). The timing of that game would all but eliminate the loser from contending as a one-loss team, unless that loss is as dramatic as, say, the Notre Dame/USC contest last year.

Jeff, um, you have West Virginia as the 16th-best team in the country.

             A&H     RB      CM     KM     JS     PW
West Virginia 15      21      14     12     10     13
Louisville    22      15      18     16     12     19

The winner of West Virginia/Louisville will most certainly have a BCS average higher than 0.820 at season's end, especially if that winner is West Virginia. This all means that Florida, not USC, not The Big Game's loser, not Auburn, not Notre Dame, poses the biggest threat to pass an undefeated team for the second ranking.

Florida has the unique advantage of controlling its destiny to a potential matchup with a top-five BCS team in the last week of the season if Arkansas loses to Tennessee and LSU as expected. The timing of that win, in comparison with a Big East team's quality win that will already be one month stale, could be enough to propel Florida to eke by into the second spot. Also, a 10-2 Auburn would be ranked higher than an 11-1 Louisville/West Virginia, making Florida's win even more valuable at the time.

How hard-soft is it to claim you played through a concussion, only to turn around and retract your statement?

Rutgers, as usual, will also be influencing who gets the second seed. It would work out perfectly for the winner of West Virginia/Louisville (just play the game, I hate typing this) if Rutgers was able to finish 11-1, the only loss coming from Thursday's winner. This would provide a semi-quality win for the Big East champion and would definitely make a difference in some of the computer rankings (where Rutgers is currently ranked 8th). I'm drinking on Thursday.

You might as well pace Expedia with your travel reservations; these games are set in stone:

BCS Championship: Ohio State vs. West Virginia (sounds familiar, check August TANBR)

Allstate Sugar: Florida vs. Notre Dame

Fedex Orange: Clemson vs. Tennessee

Rose: California vs. Michigan

Tostitos Fiesta: Texas vs. Boise State

Capital One: Wisconsin vs. Arkansas

Toyota Gator: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech

Outback: Auburn vs. Penn State

Cotton: Nebraska vs. LSU

Maybe the 'N' really does stand for 'knowledge.'

Chick-fil-A: Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina

Alamo: Oklahoma vs. Iowa

Pacific Life Holiday: Texas A&M vs. USC

I feel pretty confident about these; my biggest doubt is sending Arkansas to the Capital One. We might end up flip-flopping LSU and Arkansas here.

Oregon State fucking owns.

- P.T.