Hot Boudin, Cold Cous-Cous...

Sifting Through the BCS Part One:


The first iteration of BCS standings were released on Sunday with little pomp and circumstance. You know, you'd think NBC would control how much information is leaked out to try to maximize the suspense. Then again, NBC's not doing much of anything right on Sunday night.

The biggest surprise would have to be Auburn's position at 4. Auburn loses at home to a then-unranked Arkansas 27-10, and eight days later is occupying a slim lead at the four spot. Then again, in the computer's eyes (I love how people talk about this whole system as The Computer), they lost at home to the thirteenth-ranked team, a 'quality' loss in most computer polls.

What's interesting is how the formula spits back to us just how shitty this college football season is going: Ohio State, USC, and Michigan are the only ones displaying 'champion' numbers (.9731, .9559, .9341), and we're in the eighth week. Shouldn't we have six or seven teams bottlenecking for the top two spots at this point in the season? A team that lost by 17 at home just last week is occupying the fourth spot with a .7478. The margin between Auburn and West Virginia is slim (.0032), meaning West Virginia's matchup with Louisville looms even larger.

The Mountaineers are pulling for (aside from Auburn losing) Florida or Tennessee to drop games here and there, thereby reducing the effectiveness of a potential SEC Championship victory for Auburn in Week 14. The bad news for West Virginia is that Louisville is likely to drop like a rock in the event WVU wins November 2nd, making that win not nearly as 'quality' in the eyes of the computer polls. Louisville, uh, not much I can say here. You need a minor miracle to crack the top two at season's end, with several one loss teams likely to jump above you by that time.

USC (I'll never understand it) is sitting pretty at the two spot with its bulk of quality games yet to be played. USC... you beat Nebraska. Are the computer polls using data from 1994? Then again, USC is getting mad quality win points from winning in Fayetteville, as the Hogs stand at the thirteenth position. Arkansas and Nebraska have likely peaked in their BCS positions, slightly diminishing USC's ranking each week. But quality wins over Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame would more than offset any schedule weakening, and USC would likely be the number-one-ranked team at the end of the regular season for the third year in a row.

Florida is not out by any means, yet Tennessee is way down at 11. Florida is likely to run the tables and play in the SEC title game, a game in which the loser would probably be headed to the Capital One Bowl, so the opportunity is there for the Vols to score an at-large BCS berth at season's end. Tennessee is pulling for Cal to beat USC, significantly increasing their strength of schedule and computer ranking.

All in all, a pretty calm BCS landscape after Week 7. I still feel strongly USC will drop a game (please), opening up the floodgates with controversy. Does Michigan, with a valiant effort in Columbus, deserve a rematch on a neutral field? Does West Virginia, after beating Louisville on the road, deserve another chance at a high-stakes bowl? Is the second spot there for the taking for the winner of Auburn-Florida rematch? Like Ray said, this is the perfect year for a playoff.

- P.T.