Oregon State Fucking Owns: Sifting Through the BCS Part 3 (with Bowl Projections):

So for the first time this season, the BCS has a completely different look. Oregon State earned H2F favorite status on Saturday afternoon, all but eliminating the nightmare of having a J.D. Booty-led USC team actually facing the possibility of winning a national championship. And, contrary to many articles circulating after the weekend, the BCS picture is actually a little more clear after the Trojan loss.

It's a game with 'Trojans' and 'Beavers'... I'm lazy.

Now, the outlook is looking much better for the victor in Thursday's Mountaineers-Cardinals matchup, one which most probably will be drunkenly gamecasted by yours truly. That's right, it's Hodson to Fuller's (all but) week off from school, and you should likewise enjoy it.

I might even make purple drink Thursday night. Hope my couch doesn't get paced when the Mountaineers win (handily).

     1. Ohio State       0.9864
     2. Michigan         0.9697
     3. West Virginia    0.7862
     4. Florida          0.7791
     5. Louisville       0.7621
     6. Auburn           0.7589
     7. Texas            0.7562
     8. USC              0.7152
     9. Notre Dame       0.7151
     10. California      0.7133
     11. Tennessee       0.7000

Ohio State cruised once again, this time 44-0 over hapless Minnesota, sadly surpassing LSU in the national scoring defense rankings. Michigan, well, I can't really remember if they played or not... they 'cruised' past Northwestern 17-3. That's the thing about this Michigan team: hard to tell if they keep just simply finding ways to win ugly (Patriots-style), or if they're just not that good. I still keep convincing myself they come out of Columbus with a win, but it's getting harder and harder to justify that.

Still one of my favorite college football images. Also, 'Desmond Howard' sounds like someone who should be returning punts. 'Mario Manningham?' Eh, he should be making my Mangia pizza.

The bottom line for the week, however: tremendously great news for West Virginia and Louisville. Not only will the winner be within striking distance for the second spot after their quality win, the loser of Michigan/Ohio State should drop in a similar fashion as USC, especially when looking at the computer rankings.

                   A&H    RB    CM    KM    JS     PW
 USC BCS Week 2:   25     23    23    25    25     24
 USC BCS Week 3:   21     19    20    19    21     20

USC had a computer average that was tied for first last week, and the computer rankings, in response to the loss to a weaker Oregon State team, demoted them to a sixth-ranked computer average. Even though the loser of Michigan and Ohio State will have lost to a much, much more quality opponent, it appears that the loser's computer ranking (in addition to the human polls) will drop at least four or five spots. Thus, a conservative BCS average estimate for the loser of The Big Game would be about 0.820 (using usual data for the fourth- or fifth-ranked team). The timing of that game would all but eliminate the loser from contending as a one-loss team, unless that loss is as dramatic as, say, the Notre Dame/USC contest last year.

Jeff, um, you have West Virginia as the 16th-best team in the country.

             A&H     RB      CM     KM     JS     PW
West Virginia 15      21      14     12     10     13
Louisville    22      15      18     16     12     19

The winner of West Virginia/Louisville will most certainly have a BCS average higher than 0.820 at season's end, especially if that winner is West Virginia. This all means that Florida, not USC, not The Big Game's loser, not Auburn, not Notre Dame, poses the biggest threat to pass an undefeated team for the second ranking.

Florida has the unique advantage of controlling its destiny to a potential matchup with a top-five BCS team in the last week of the season if Arkansas loses to Tennessee and LSU as expected. The timing of that win, in comparison with a Big East team's quality win that will already be one month stale, could be enough to propel Florida to eke by into the second spot. Also, a 10-2 Auburn would be ranked higher than an 11-1 Louisville/West Virginia, making Florida's win even more valuable at the time.

How hard-soft is it to claim you played through a concussion, only to turn around and retract your statement?

Rutgers, as usual, will also be influencing who gets the second seed. It would work out perfectly for the winner of West Virginia/Louisville (just play the game, I hate typing this) if Rutgers was able to finish 11-1, the only loss coming from Thursday's winner. This would provide a semi-quality win for the Big East champion and would definitely make a difference in some of the computer rankings (where Rutgers is currently ranked 8th). I'm drinking on Thursday.

You might as well pace Expedia with your travel reservations; these games are set in stone:

BCS Championship: Ohio State vs. West Virginia (sounds familiar, check August TANBR)

Allstate Sugar: Florida vs. Notre Dame

Fedex Orange: Clemson vs. Tennessee

Rose: California vs. Michigan

Tostitos Fiesta: Texas vs. Boise State

Capital One: Wisconsin vs. Arkansas

Toyota Gator: Louisville vs. Georgia Tech

Outback: Auburn vs. Penn State

Cotton: Nebraska vs. LSU

Maybe the 'N' really does stand for 'knowledge.'

Chick-fil-A: Virginia Tech vs. South Carolina

Alamo: Oklahoma vs. Iowa

Pacific Life Holiday: Texas A&M vs. USC

I feel pretty confident about these; my biggest doubt is sending Arkansas to the Capital One. We might end up flip-flopping LSU and Arkansas here.

Oregon State fucking owns.

- P.T.

School: As Gay As This:

Actually, the Seminole tribe will still probably want you to get rid of that nickname.

I don't know how much I'll be contributing over the next five or so days... huge Intro to Computational Fluid Dynamics midterm on Monday 10/30. I'll be paced on Halloween night and ready to write all of next week, though.

This grad school thing... it's almost a prerequisite that tests will just absolutely decimate the week leading up to them. And even when you get a good grade back (I got a 91.5 on Thermo), you're like, "This is what I'm going to have to do every time from now on?"

I can't imagine what watching ESPN all day would be like, though. I'd almost favor studying for six hours over listening to Sportscenter rotate among Kenny Rogers--- dirt or pine tar?!?!?1?, Cowboys switched quarterbacks OMG!!!!, and Ben Roethlisberger concussion motorcycle Charlie Batch!!!!!. My head would hurt tremendously more. I thought the month of October was usually the best sports month.

Unconquered,

- P.T.

Sifting Through the BCS Week 2: Freakin' USC:

        
      1. Ohio State        0.9764
      2. Michigan          0.9451
      3. USC               0.9439
      4. West Virginia     0.7551
      5. Auburn            0.7466
      6. Florida           0.7261
      7. Texas             0.7241
      8. Louisville        0.7215
      9. Notre Dame        0.6730
      10. California       0.6680
      11. Tennessee        0.6497  

New iteration of Bowl Championship Series standings out, and again, nothing really noteworthy or exciting at all. That's why I expect my blog traffic to be unusually low today.

Michigan has overtaken USC, but this is just slightly bothersome to the Trojans after learning what their future string of opponents are capable of. Quoting Brad Edwards:

"Prior to Saturday, most analysts believed USC was bound to lose at least once in its season-ending stretch against Oregon, Cal, Notre Dame and UCLA. But after Oregon was beaten handily at Washington State, and Cal needed OT for a home win against shorthanded Washington, and Notre Dame squeaked out a victory over a UCLA team that seemed to find a way to lose, it's fair to say that stretch of games doesn't look quite as daunting for the Trojans. And we'll soon see how much the open date helped USC improve."

Awesome. I swear, possibly hearing that USC is playing in their 'fourth straight national championship game' would just add salt to the current wounds of this 2006 season.

In the case of USC losing, the 'perfect storm' that Brad talks about every season could be a'brewing again. Read: the gap between West Virginia at 4 and Tennessee at 11 is a mere 0.1054, which is relatively small compared to the 0.1888 between USC at 3 and the Mountaineers at the four spot. This just reemphasizes the bottleneck of (mostly) one-loss teams after the big three, who, unlike last season, will not be killing each other off anytime soon.

In fact, if we consider only one conference's contribution to the BCS picture, let's just take the SEC for H2F's sake, we can obtain a scary result. Given: 4 teams in the top 13 of the rankings: Auburn (5), Florida (6), Tennessee (11), Arkansas (13). I just threw up in my mouth.

Let's assume Auburn wins out, finishing 11-1, and Arkansas loses only one conference game, Tennessee. Florida runs the table at 11-1, earning the SEC East crown and a space in the conference championship, where they face West champion Arkansas, who beats out Auburn with the tiebreaker. Florida wins the conference. Also, let's just say Rutgers paces West Virginia, who had earlier won in Louisville. Let's also add California running the table, including a critical win at USC, for shits and giggles.

We'll also assume the winner of Ohio State/Michigan holds the number one ranking, from which the only advantage is choice of uniform color in the Taco. We would then have Auburn (11-1), who had earlier beaten Florida (12-1), who had earlier beaten Tennessee (11-1), who had earlier beaten California (11-1), as the likely next four teams.

There's also Texas just moving along as the highest-ranked one-loss team in the human polls. Texas is likely to finish the regular season and conference championship at 12-1, as well. However, Texas will fail to have a win nearly as quality as Florida, Tennessee, or Auburn. Which is good, because that would pretty much mean those Chance Mock teams in 2003 could probably pace a title when spliced into the 2006 season.

I've got a splitting headache, mostly from actually learning how to discretize functions and implement numerical schemes way more complicated than the BCS. Yeah, this is just leisure for me.

- P.T.

Liveblogging Fresno State at LSU:

8:12: The game, delayed after two inches of rain, is moments away from starting. That 33-point cover is looking near-impossible, Tank.

8:15: It's sad; there are about 30,000 people in the stands when the game starts. Do we demand instant gratification that much now? We're slowly becoming like UF fans.

8:16: LSU wins the toss, elects to defer. 8 in a row, 1 in 256 chance, baby.

8:17: Ah, the melodic voice of Ron Franklin lets us know that there were stadium safety measures not allowing fans to enter the stadium till, like, 20 minutes ago.

8:20: Country not starting...? It's Craig Steltz time. Fresno goes three rushes and out, Buster lets the punt be downed. I swear, I thought I heard Ron say that Chevis was lined up to receive the punt.

8:22: St. Louis leads Game 1 of the Two Coolest Road Jerseys Series 4-1.

8:24: Uh, we just lost six or seven yards on a 2nd-and-1 lateral pass. 33-point favorites.

8:25: Bowe plucks a ball out of the air for the first. I take for granted how much I'll miss these receivers. Trindon Holliday gets the corner and easily takes it in 38 yards untouched for the score. Skyler Green, version 2.0.

For a second there, I subconsciously thought the unthinkable-- Ronnie Prude returning an interception for a touchdown.

8:32: Fresno converts on a screen up the middle. Good call. The Bear Pascoe Namedrop count is at 1.

8:36: FSU punts, and they're averaging 28 yards per punt. Buster's able to field it, and, wouldn't you know, goes untouched at half-speed for 77 yards and the touchdown. So far, this has been that game that makes me realize our assessors of talent might not be very skilled at all.

I can't wait until Buster Davis tackles Buster Davis in the NFL, and Chris Berman explodes as a result.

8:41: This is weird, watching a live-action LSU game with a computer on my lap. That's why I won't be liveblogging Tennessee, thanks.

8:42: Sean Norton + about 30 seconds in the pocket = Ali Highsmith leveling him out of bounds. Welcome to 30% of Death Valley.

8:44: FSU downs the ball at the eight. More stats for JR, pace. Now something bad is bound to happen...

8:46: One more telling of the Bowe-getting-LASIK saga. I've heard the full spectrum of versions, everything from his contacts not being suitable to him being legally blind. LASIK has probably paid Ed Cunningham to mention this, I'm guessing.

Be prepared when the FOX Cotton Bowl announcers tell the story of Bowe not having eyes at all until this past summer.

8:47: Tyler Clutts sacks JaMaicus as we move backwards, and that suitably sums up the game. Hate that freaking punt formation.

8:50: I think Pelini challenged himself tonight by allowing only 15% of the defensive playbook to be used. And, you know what? I'm OK with it.

8:51: Fresno with a fifteen-yard punt. Let's just get this over with as fast as possible. I'm not sure if anyone wants to be there right now.

8:57: Did I mention I ate like three pounds of meat around 2:00 today? Yeah, drove a half-hour to Salt Lick Barbecue, where you pay $16 and they keep bringing meat out until you tell them to stop. I love Texas.

9:01: Both teams have had a couple of three-and-outs. The Victory Cigar, or the Granny Smith Apple, or whatever you want to call him, looks unlikely to get any playing time tonight.

9:04: Cards lead 7-1. I'm excited to see the TV ratings for this series.

9:07: Just an ugly game. JR completed a two-yard pass to Chaz Scott, who slipped, making it 4th-and-eight. Not much to say; this is still the most entertaining game on right now, with the 7-1 baseball game and 17-0 Clemson/GT yawner.

9:09: I love how Borat is going to make millions more than Flags of Our Fathers in their respective opening weekends. I honestly can't foresee any situation in which I actively get in the car to go see Flags.

9:11: Another well-executed screen pass by FSU. Hey, Tyson, it's not ever going to be that easy. Don't bite next time. I'm legitimately worried now.

9:14: FSU hits a seeing-eye field goal, 14-3, Tigers. I guess it's good that JaMaicus is getting his bad game out of the way before Knoxville. Unless he plays a pick-up game during the bye weekend and absolutely tears it up.

9:19: Russell paces a three-yard run. Let it go on the record that I'll never be comfortable with 'Maicus running with a wet ball. I think even he was surprised he didn't fumble.

9:21: 24-yard pass to Bowe. 'Maicus has also never sold anybody on his playfake. It's so nonchalant, but that's just another thing I love about him.

9:23: Welcome to the now! Louisiana State University! Shot of a black woman working in a lab!

9:25: Bowe loses a catchable one in the endzone. Colt David nails the 44-yard field goal. He might be this decade's John Corbello, and I mean that in a good way. Then again, Ed Cunningham called Ryan Gaudet a 'very good kicker.'

9:29: This our first Grey Sweatshirt Night for Bo Pelini. Fall's here...it's my own personal leaves changing color.

9:35: Halftime... Not sure what to do at halftime with these things.

9:37: Michigan State 41, Northwestern 38 after a 35-point comeback by the Spartans. State's that emotional basket case of a girl who needs to be taken home at like 11 PM during a night of partying.

9:42: Clemson 31, Ga Tech 7. Sorry, Lenny and Bubes.

9:55: I haven't mentioned how much it sounds like Ron Franklin has never seen rain before. It absolutely downpoured for two hours before the game started. I want him to shadow TWC's Jim Cantore during the next hurricane.

9:57: 114 yards of offense during the first half. I'm glad I didn't come in town for this game.

9:59: I'm slowly realizing how Charles Scott kind of sucks. He always seems to hit the hole standing up, which is never good. Title run 2007!

10:00: Three-and-out after 'Maicus gets an intentional grounding call. This is following the typical upset recipe.

10:02: 34-yard pass for Fresno. I do not want Ed Cunningham lecturing the defense anymore.

10:03: Another screen up the middle, another success for FSU. Another Bear Pascoe namedrop.

10:05: I want someone to say LaRon Landry sucks. Ever since 2004, he's been "a safety who's definitely going to be playing on Sundays." How about saying he's not good enough?

10:06: FSU knuckleballs a field goal, Tigers up 17-6. It could (and should) be much worse.

10:11: Alley Broussard! Let's see if Ron Franklin did his research and talks about Scooby Snacks.

10:12: We look a little like THE MOST TALENTED TEAM EVAR now on this drive. JR with a nice pass, Holliday with a 12-yard run. I think Jimbo allowed himself 20 more pages at halftime.

10:13: Alley Broussard, 21-yard touchdown. 24-6, Tigers. I still don't think we'll ever know the story on 'Cat. Hopefully he'll be back to 2004 form next season.

10:17: Ed Cunningham comes thisclose to mentioning Scooby Snacks. Also, he said the reason Alley sat out last week was 'the eating situation.' This has been an unusual season.

10:21: Highsmith continues to have a big game. It seems like he must have about eight tackles already. Certainly making Rondell Mealey and Trev Faulk proud to wear #7.

10:24: Highsmith gets a sack. Highsmith, Butkus Award Finalist. Craig Steltz, sack on a corner blitz. I'm just pulling for the cover now.

Pelini only allowed himself one corner blitz this game, and it worked.

10:27: Cards put it away 7-2. Not sure if I like them as much as I used to. It mostly has to do with the pure unintentional comedy stemming from GENIUS Tony LaRussa. I'm pulling for them, though.

10:30: I love that Mike Golic Dr. Pepper commercial where he acts like footballs are flying all over the place. He certainly saved his best acting for the Mike and Mike commercials.

10:33: Some story about a turkey that turned into the Herman Johnson/largest LA baby story pretty quickly. Also, it featured Dr. Jerry Punch (an actual doctor!) talking about delivering babies and comparing them to turkeys. I'm confused. This is no better than the Steve Lyons habla'ing espanol thing, right?

10:34: Bowe catches the pass in stride and we get some Bowe-in-the-open-field moves, something we don't see nearly enough. 31-6, Tigers. 33 points in sight, after Hurricane Katrina part two? Unbelievable.

10:35: Sonic commerical about a guy who blogs and suspects he only has two readers. I'm not going to Sonic ever again. Please, HTFers, comment sometime? I need affirmation.

10:38: Steltz lambasts a guy to break up a potential thirty-yard pass. Did I mention how Jonathan Zenon is having, like, the worst game of his career?

10:40: Tigers force a fourth-and-six. It is made known that LaRon had a 2.8 GPA at LSU. Davis makes too many moves on the punt return, Tigers near their own 20.

10:44: Alley Broussard on a 38-yard run, and he actually looks legitimately ready to play. I think TAF just buys his groceries for him by now.

10:46: Les Miles pulled out the windsuit for a special occasion tonight. We go for the fourth-and-one.

10:49: On the fourth down, we decide we just want the touchdown right now. Maicus makes it look easy on the slant to Buster over the middle. LSU 38-6 as the Granny Smith Apple begins to warm up.

10:51: I've thought about emailing Wendy's with, "You realize I'm not ever going to consider your restaurant until you pull the plug on those commercials with that seizure-inducing whistle at the beginning and the end, right?"

10:55: The good thing about having only the 30,000 best fans in the stadium is that nobody's leaving early when it's 38-6. A Geaux Tigers chant is heard in the background.

10:56: Landry paces an out-of-bounds tackle that he should've been penalized for. He's still in the game for some reason.

10:58: Six minutes left in the Race for the Cover. I see a Flynn INT in the near future...

11:01: Big FSU fourth down for gamblers, and Steltz breaks up another pass. Cue 'Bandits.' Steltz is known as Surfer Man to his team, according to Ed Cunningham. You're probably pulling a Musberger there, Ed.

11:03: Keiland Williams will decidedly not be having a good game tonight. Matthew paces a quarterback draw for the first down. Are the sports books in Vegas going crazy right now? I think so.

11:06: First down, Tigers. Cover seems out of reach, and then Keiland takes it down the sideline nicely. This is the gambling moment of the season.

You Vegas tease, you

11:08: Tigers run the clock out at the six. This is why I don't gamble.

11:09: Your final: LSU 38, Fresno 6. Reminded me a lot of the Vanderbilt game last year. I must say, that was a fairly well-played, well-called game by FSU. They didn't turn the ball over once and paced three successful screens up the middle that even Urban Meyer didn't think up. I don't like this liveblogging thing too much, glad I got it out of the way.

11:11: Ryan Perrilloux sulks in the corner of the locker room.

- P.T.

Bear Pascoe Is Who We THOUGHT He Was: Week 8 Preview:

So this Fresno State game has kind of snuck up on us, I don't know, maybe because the New Orleans media has had some other things to talk about. Really, it's rather troubling that I'm not worried at all about this game-- Fresno State probably has more talent than anyone we've beaten. And people wonder why we're ranked so low in the BCS... they're almost answering their own question. Our five victories are ULL, Arizona, Tulane, Mississippi State, and Kentucky. You can't get any more anti-quality than that.

But Fresno State is 1-5, narrowly losing games against Oregon and Washington by a combined four points. Apparently their otherwise balanced offense has turned completely one-dimensional with the run, and we're biding our time as they visit the stadium of the eighth-ranked rush defense. Then again, we're the fourth-ranked pass defense. And first overall. Seasons like this make CFBstats.com quite an entertaining bookmark.

Hi, I'm Wilford Brimley.

Don't know much about Fresno State, other than three things: Pat Hill still sports a solidly trailer handlebar, the team narrowly blew it in USC last season (probably explaining their 2006 hangover), and Bear Pascoe looks pretty much like you'd expect him to. Dan Bornay will wholeheartedly enjoy saying that name any chance he gets Saturday night.

Jim Hawthorne, too, is secretly hoping for a big game from Bear.

It's hard to believe that, with the 31 games Fresno State has played under Hill against BCS schools, this will be only the third against an SEC team. Stanford should actually watch their back in the Pac-10; Fresno State's almost an honorary member by now. But here's to teams like Auburn. Wait, Auburn paced them 62-0 back in 1996 when they were actually equivalent to Auburn mainstays like the Citadel and Appalaichan State. Apparently their passing game has been atrocious, as redshirt freshman Sean Norton became the starting quarterback halfway through their blowout loss in Hawai'i-- and racked up some impressive scrub stats. Sounds like an Anthony Scelfo in the making.

Think of an opposing quarterback who played better than Anthony Freaking Scelfo in Tiger Stadium this year. Not possible.

But, hey, we've scored more points this season through seven games than any since 1930! Please. Just link me to the defensive statistics in the future and save us all some valuable time, LSUsports.net. That's how I get my Tyson Jackson School of Thought going everyday.

You knew I was gonna go the facebook route with this one, Ali.

This did make me feel a little better about the season. Ali Highsmith! A-lee Highsmith, in the same category as H.B. Blades (hardest. name. ever.), Buster Davis (... the other one, at FSU), Paul the Penn State Linebacker Whose Knee Turned to Dust, and the mighty James Laurinaitis (you must say it in the Musberger voice). And some other people who have normal names. JAMES LAURINAITIS, GREEK EMPEROR. Actually, he's the son of Animal, one-half of the Road Warriors/Legion of Doom wrestling duo. If you mute Brent every Saturday night like some, you probably didn't know that.

Probably already blocked his MySpace from user 'MuSbErGeR1939'

Another bit of trivia: the green 'V' on the back of Fresno State's helmet represents the Valley, and Fresno State's subsequent pride of its rich agricultural history. Other than that, hopefully a by-the-book game with this team. Redshirt freshman... making his first start ever in Tiger Stadium... probably the most apathetic crowd of the year... JaMaicus... Jesse Daniels...

Nickname is Country ... Born Jan. 8, 1984 ... Majoring in general studies ... On pace to graduate in the spring of 2007 as he enters the 2006 fall semester just 22 hours shy of earning his degree ... Hobbies include fishing and hunting ... Has a stocked pond in his backyard ... Listens to "In the Air Tonight" by Phil Collins before every game ... Aspires to coach high school football or serve as a little league baseball coach.

Keiland Williams has a big game. LSU 44 Fresno State 9 Final. Now I'm worried.

- P.T.

Drunk:


Man, I miss that stadium.

- P.T.

Did You Miss a Test or Something? A Quick Update:

We at HTF have been focusing our energies on Advanced Thermodynamics as of late. So as I clear out the emails from info@lsutaf.org out of my inbox, I'll let you know what I know.

• We got a good helping of Les Miles Speak in the usual Monday press conference. According to coach, "[He] felt like we played much better this week." Refreshing. Coach, um, what about our special teams play? Anything different? "It was nice to see Craig Davis return punts... we started talking about him actually three weeks into the season." Oh, well, it's good to know changes were made almost immediately. What would you say is the biggest difference between Craig Davis and Chevis Jackson when fielding punts? "He fielded them well." So, you're pretty much closing the book on Chev then, huh? "Chevis is one guy [who may return punts]." You realize Buster's about to graduate, right? "Jai Eugene might be one guy who steps forward. Trindon Holliday has to get comfortable with receiving the punt." Les, remind us you're a small-town, average Joe of a coach: "Our kickoff team was darn near perfect."

• Can we get a Keith Zinger injury update? It pretty much deserves its own column by now. "Tight end Keith Zinger, who had a stomach ailment and did not dress out Saturday, is questionable." Keith, you're not even making up good injuries anymore. I've got a stomach ailment most Saturday mornings, too. Coach? "We are waiting to see if he gets a little better." We've pretty much been waiting since the 2002 Cotton Bowl it seems. It's Dick Dickson Time, folks.

• UK coach Rich Brooks... any thoughts? "Obviously, we weren't interested in playing... they took it right down the field and gashed us. It's hard to understand they're sitting here with two losses at this point because they've got some really good players." By that rationale, Rich, Miami would be wrapping up its sixth consecutive conference title instead of using House Protection to motivate themselves against FIU.
  

• Fresno State... they kind of suck, right, Les? "They are really known for being able to reach up and strike great, talented opponents." That's a backhanded compliment if I've ever heard one. Hey, Lester, the Bulldogs are 1-5! "Their record does not really depict their strength." Whatever that means. Any cool names on the Bulldogs? "Bear Pascoe is a big tight end." Fair enough.

• 'Cat Broussard, there were rumors that you left the football team (that I was completely unaware of until now). Thoughts? "I'm still here." JR, can you confirm? "I saw Alley at practice. He was giving good effort. Gave him a few handoffs. He was full speed Monday." JaMaicus, is that a penchant towards five-word statements I'm seeing?

• And then it hit me. It's so simple. A coach not nearly used to this much talent not failing to condition, strategize, or scheme, but failing simply to maintain that not-good-enough mentality Saban most definitely instilled before: "We need to try and bring the same environment to Tennessee and try to be loose and play football the way we know how," sophomore defensive end Tyson Jackson said. "We know we are a good football team no matter who we're playing."

See you HTFers post-test, pre-crunk tomorrow evening.

- P.T.

Sifting Through the BCS Part One:


The first iteration of BCS standings were released on Sunday with little pomp and circumstance. You know, you'd think NBC would control how much information is leaked out to try to maximize the suspense. Then again, NBC's not doing much of anything right on Sunday night.

The biggest surprise would have to be Auburn's position at 4. Auburn loses at home to a then-unranked Arkansas 27-10, and eight days later is occupying a slim lead at the four spot. Then again, in the computer's eyes (I love how people talk about this whole system as The Computer), they lost at home to the thirteenth-ranked team, a 'quality' loss in most computer polls.

What's interesting is how the formula spits back to us just how shitty this college football season is going: Ohio State, USC, and Michigan are the only ones displaying 'champion' numbers (.9731, .9559, .9341), and we're in the eighth week. Shouldn't we have six or seven teams bottlenecking for the top two spots at this point in the season? A team that lost by 17 at home just last week is occupying the fourth spot with a .7478. The margin between Auburn and West Virginia is slim (.0032), meaning West Virginia's matchup with Louisville looms even larger.

The Mountaineers are pulling for (aside from Auburn losing) Florida or Tennessee to drop games here and there, thereby reducing the effectiveness of a potential SEC Championship victory for Auburn in Week 14. The bad news for West Virginia is that Louisville is likely to drop like a rock in the event WVU wins November 2nd, making that win not nearly as 'quality' in the eyes of the computer polls. Louisville, uh, not much I can say here. You need a minor miracle to crack the top two at season's end, with several one loss teams likely to jump above you by that time.

USC (I'll never understand it) is sitting pretty at the two spot with its bulk of quality games yet to be played. USC... you beat Nebraska. Are the computer polls using data from 1994? Then again, USC is getting mad quality win points from winning in Fayetteville, as the Hogs stand at the thirteenth position. Arkansas and Nebraska have likely peaked in their BCS positions, slightly diminishing USC's ranking each week. But quality wins over Oregon, Cal, and Notre Dame would more than offset any schedule weakening, and USC would likely be the number-one-ranked team at the end of the regular season for the third year in a row.

Florida is not out by any means, yet Tennessee is way down at 11. Florida is likely to run the tables and play in the SEC title game, a game in which the loser would probably be headed to the Capital One Bowl, so the opportunity is there for the Vols to score an at-large BCS berth at season's end. Tennessee is pulling for Cal to beat USC, significantly increasing their strength of schedule and computer ranking.

All in all, a pretty calm BCS landscape after Week 7. I still feel strongly USC will drop a game (please), opening up the floodgates with controversy. Does Michigan, with a valiant effort in Columbus, deserve a rematch on a neutral field? Does West Virginia, after beating Louisville on the road, deserve another chance at a high-stakes bowl? Is the second spot there for the taking for the winner of Auburn-Florida rematch? Like Ray said, this is the perfect year for a playoff.

- P.T.

We Continue to Beat the Shit Out of Lesser Opponents: Week 7 Recap:

Didn't get to watch a single play, and of course College Gameday Final isn't nearly what it used to be, so I'm just going off of stats, play-by-play, and photos. Piss poor blogging, I agree.

COIN TOSS: LSU wins toss, defers choice to 2nd half. Kentucky will receive. LSU will kick off and defend the south end zone.

Perhaps the most interesting statistic of the year has involved pure luck: we have won all seven coin tosses this season. Even ol' Nick Saban couldn't manage that. Why aren't people making a bigger deal out of this? You realize there's a 1/128 chance of this happening? Cue Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Dead reference.

Jackson, Dyakowski, Zenon, Highsmith. They're totally playing craps right now at Argosy.

Kentucky, this is not the way you start the game in Death Valley:

U 4-6 U47 Tim Masthay punt 39 yards to the LS14, Craig Davis return 0 yards to the LS14 (David Jones),
PENALTY UK kick catching interference (David Jones) 15 yards to the LS29, 1st and 10.
--------------- 6 plays, 27 yards, TOP 02:31 ---------------
L 1-10 L29 LSU drive start at 12:29 (1st), LS ball on LS29.
L 1-10 L29 PENALTY UK personal foul (Marc. McClinton) 15 yards to the LS44

It's been a long time coming with Trindon Holliday. Trust me, the guy's good. October's halfway done, and he's still not a household name as promised. He's working on it, though:

L 1-10 L48 T. Holliday rush for 30 yards to the UK22, 1ST DOWN LS, out-of-bounds (Marc. McClinton).

Two Mister Footballs in one photograph. Also a good indication of how fucking tall JR is.

So we're moving along as usual against a weaker team, JaMarcus scarily efficient (he was 11-11, 170 yds, 2 TD at one point), and of course this needs to happen eventually:

L 2-4 U21 Justin Vincent rush for loss of 1 yard to the UK22 (Braxton Kelley).

Really, I've shut the book on Justin Vincent. I don't even know if I'm standing up for him on Senior Night.

Hey, nice shot of one of your two carries. Photographer must've had catlike reflexes, with your 3 yards of offense.

U 4-5 U39 Tim Masthay punt 51 yards to the LS10, Craig Davis return 27 yards to the LS37 (T. C. Drake).

Buster! Makes me really think twice about how well our Special Teams personnel can assess talent. Also makes me realize that Skyler officially had the shortest LSU career ever, it seems.

Buster can certainly look the ball in with those big ol' deer eyes.

L 1-10 L35 Charles Scott rush for 38 yards to the UK27, 1ST DOWN LS (Wesley Woodyard).

Huh? Scott and Hester will have to do. I must admit, if his name were LeCharles Scott, I'd be much more excited about his running back capabilities. Then again, I also work for a research lab that doesn't allow foreign employees, so...

L 1-10 U29 Matt Flynn rush for 27 yards to the UK2, 1ST DOWN LS (Dallas Greer).

Smokin' Matt Flynn! Slowly but surely, the blind Matt Flynn supporters are compliling evidence. Shit.

Matt Flynn: decidedly not an HTF fan (I'm guessing). The thing is, he seems like a pretty nice guy and all; I'd put him behind only Ricky Jean-Francois as someone I'd have a beer with.

L 3-8 U38 Ryan Perrilloux rush for 12 yards to the UK26, 1ST DOWN LS, out-of-bounds (E. J. Adams).

There's the next Vince Young. Ice in his veins too-- it was third-and-eight. If you think my love for JaMarcus is a little exaggerated, wait till 2008, HTFers.

Patiently waiting. I can only watch the Cigarillo's YouTube high school highlights so many times.

LSU 49 Kentucky 0. Yeah, that's pretty much all I have. I'm a terrible blogger, I know. I had ideas of ordering the game online for $15, which would have certainly provided some better commentary, but ultimately declined and watched the UF/Auburn game with some Gator fans. Controversial call (though to a lesser degree) influencing a loss in the Plains? Hey, I think I remember that feeling. Goodbye, Western Division title. Hello, Outback Bowl!

- P.T.

A State of College Football: Yeah, This Kind of Sucks:

This week is, for all intents and purposes, the midpoint of the regular college football season, so it’s as good an opportunity as any to assess which teams have a viable shot at coming away with the crystal. You may remember from my second post ever on HTF, I dwelled on how this college football season should be rather fun, as there was no clear-cut preseason favorite for the first time since 1998:

“I can’t remember the last time there wasn’t a consensus preseason #1, or at least one decidedly superior to #2 on paper. 2003 had Oklahoma. 2001-02 had Miami. 1999-2000, Florida State. This season, it seems as if you could crown any team in the preseason and then spend the next hour convincing yourself they’re not worthy. I’ve already delved through the strengths and weaknesses of every top-15 team (a line had to be drawn at some point)—no team stands out in anyone’s preseason poll.”

And I may have mentioned how this season had the makings of a really fun one, with all this new-found uncertainty before the season started. No season in recent memory was less fun than last when looking at the big picture, as #1 USC and #2 Texas stayed the course all season:

“In retrospect, last college football season was just one four-month College Gameday outside of the Rose Bowl.”

Well, 2006 is trying its hardest to supplant 2005 as the most disappointing season of the ‘00s. Here’s where we stand right now:

The Contenders

Ohio State / Michigan: Each team’s season comes down to the November 18 matchup at a rare Columbus primetime atmosphere. I am certain Ohio State survives 11-0 to this game; not so sold on Michigan yet. Really, if Michigan is the number two or three team in the country right now, we’re in trouble. I need to see Michigan dominate somebody not being quarterbacked by Brady Quinn. Anybody. Vanderbilt? Minnesota? Anyone but Notre Dame?

I'm pretty sure the Cubans are willing to trade you to the whites, Chapelle Show-style, for cash considerations.

Ohio State, however, seems to be getting better as the season goes on—they looked downright businesslike in a hostile (yet predictably underwhelming) Iowa crowd three weeks ago. They’re so fucking boring though. Give me something, Buckeyes. I get it, Troy Smith and Ted Ginn are a really effective combo. The defense, led by Laurinaitis, is surprising everyone with how seamlessly they’ve maintained the defensive intensity from last season. Anthony Gonzalez is a more substantial tool than anyone expected. It’s not a good sign when the only time I’ve cracked a genuine Buckeye-related smile this season came from a box of chicken. I feel confident in saying one of these teams will be in the Fiesta Bowl.

You have a personality that's not crime-related? I'd posit you got Extra Crispy.

West Virginia / Louisville: Talk about low-profile. Are we not bracing ourselves for the string of losses to all but one other undefeated team and one of these teams inevitably making the title game? Is it even possible to play a one-game season? Louisville doesn’t even have their best player, and there’s a remote chance they’re the number two team in the country in January. This isn’t fun. West Virginia isn’t as good as I predicted over the summer, and Louisville is no better than any other Petrino year. So, yeah, this might be half of your title game, Tostitos. Can you imagine the crowd breakdown if it’s Ohio State/Michigan versus Louisville in the Fiesta? How many fans would make the journey and resist scalping the tickets for the Cardinals? 15,000? Less?

Is the Pink Taco ready for some couch-burnin', drankin', and John Denver?

Florida: This is all a moot point when they lose tomorrow night, but Florida gets classified as a contender in my book simply because they’re gradually improving as the season goes on. That’s really all it’s going to take to win the title this year. The SEC has never seen anything like the Leak/Tebow combination and (similarly to Fun ‘n Gun in the ‘90s) is downright confused as to how to defensively counter. The defense under offensive genius Urban Meyer is going tremendously unnoticed (much like Michigan). This is simply a team finding a way to win meaningful games. Florida’s also going for the near-impossible basketball and football title in the same year, something that would make my brown friends here very happy.

You're the new J.J. Redick of college sports. I will never get tired of Google Imaging you over the next three years.

Stop Kidding Yourself

USC: Am I supposed to believe that Dwayne Jarrett makes that much of a difference to the offense? You’ve got a first-year quarterback, a running back stable of unknowns, and a defense that’s clearly losing its intensity under Petey. Can you imagine how much these players must make fun of Carroll behind his back? Do they even follow a curfew during road games? I’m excited for the inevitable Outside the Lines episode in 2008.

Fast-forward to 2008, when Petey is scolded in the Bob Ley Voice for buying strippers for and drinking purple drank with the boys. But he's a players coach...

Texas: The optimism over here is surreal. No, seriously, keep rooting for each Contender to drop locks of games while you go about running your Major Applewhite/Chance Mock Special of an offense. In the past two months, I’ve gone from mild interest to cold neutrality when it comes to Longhorn football. And I’m about three more Quan Cosby articles away from hating the team.

Lucky to Be in the Conversation

Notre Dame: Brady Quinn’s not a very good quarterback, especially when losing. Charlie Weis is clearly less of a motivator than anyone suspected, which is kind of a problem in college football. The talent limitations are still clearly showing in several phases of their game. Tom Zbikowski’s probably taped a photo of Mario Manningham to his punching bag already. They're a high-profile defensive coordinator hire from being a top-eight team. Don’t you dare consider Bo Pelini.

I got this when I Google Imaged Mr. Pelini. Reason #352 for us to match any offer this offseason.

Tennessee, Auburn, Clemson, Etc. You’re just too far down, too late. Pace.

So is this fun? I mean, there’s a 90% chance we’re staging a Ohio State/Michigan – West Virginia/Louisville four-team playoff when USC loses to California. Awesome. Oh, all that stuff about USC not being a very good team and all?

“Palm's approximation of the BCS standings this week (with one of six computer services still not released) has Ohio State first, Southern California second, Florida third, Michigan fourth and Louisville fifth.”

I really wanted to quote my boy Brad Edwards here, but of course Insider decided not to work at 1 AM on a Saturday morning. Anyway, this information comes with only one of the eight computer polls unavailable. So, approximately 96% of the formula is known by these projectors. That’s right, USC is your number two until proven otherwise. College Football!

Kentucky at LSU

I’m not even going to pretend this week; I know nothing about Kentucky other than they have a really good kick returner and Mike Archer is their defensive coordinator. Hey, at least he’s not pulling a Curley Hallman on us and teaching high school girls Western Civ.

Yeah, Mike, we're still using that same offensive playbook from 1990. Let the chess match begin.

What we have this year is a team that will roll over anyone they sense vulnerability from. We’ll trounce the non-conference teams, State, Ole Miss, etc., but when faced with a halfway-decent defense, all bets are off. We could be 8-4 just as easily as 10-2 at season’s end. That’s a helluva copout for a blogger, I know.

So behold JaMarcus throwing stupid (good) passes to Bowe, Davis, and the like against a weaker secondary. Listen to the crowd react to Buster lining up to receive punts (Chevis, you are no longer required to attend any special teams sessions, if they even exist). Watch Glenn Dorsey and LaRon continue their Halfway to All-America seasons (although I’d have to go with Darry Beckwith as being the second-most influential contributor on D behind Dorsey). Note the crowd’s awkward reaction to Mike Archer.

According to Facebook, Putt is from Gonzales a.k.a. CHINATOWN.

LSU 38 Kentucky 10 Final.

For the first time since 2002, I won’t be watching any of a game live. This is weird. Gamecasting… I pray to God this game’s not close.

- P.T.

On This Day in Tiger Football History: The Greatest Game Ever Played:

Kevin Faulk, originator of the armband-over-chinstrap

On October 11, 1997, the number-one-ranked Florida Gators took their fun-and-gun offense to Tiger Stadium fresh off their first national championship. It marked the first time College Gameday broadcast live from Baton Rouge; it also marked the last time Lee Corso picked the visiting team to win anywhere.

Baby arm in full effect, I'm sure

I remember as a thirteen-year-old simply being excited to see the number one team in the country in person. Back then, beating Florida was absolutely unheard of. Just four years earlier, they had given us our worst home loss of all time, with a score of 58-3. True, ol' Curley Hallman was coaching then, much different from our new leader Gerry DiNardo. In many ways, 1997 was a transition year for the Tigers; then-high-profile juniors Kevin Faulk, Rondell Mealey, and Herb Tyler provided offense not seen since the days of Dalton Hilliard and Eric Martin. Games against a championship-winning conference team and a perennial favorite Notre Dame provided earmarks for a year that could bring special things like a division title or New Year's Day bowl game that season or next.

Blogging during the Hallman years would have taken up copious amounts of bandwidth. Hey, you coach a high school team now!

But unfortunately for the Gators, Doug Johnson (yes, the hard-luck longtime Falcons backup) was making his first meaningful road start in a hostile environment. To make matters worse, Spurrier's ego hit a new plateau when he thought himself talented enough to instill a true rotating-quarterbacks system (with Jesse Palmer). Two rattled, young quarterbacks in Tiger Stadium. 346 (!) yards and four interceptions later, they left the field with their first conference loss in three years.

I'm pretty sure several LSU fans still think Herb Tyler was white

Names like Cedric Donaldson, Raion Hill, Tommy Banks, Troy Twillie, Anthony McFarland, Kenny Mixon, and Abram Booty were the behind-the-scenes heroes. Tommy Banks scored the second touchdown on a seven-yard run, further solidifying his status as the Racist LSU Fan Favorite. Mixon, McFarland, and Twillie came up with three big-time sacks before two moved on to pro careers. Abram Booty perfected the out-of-bounds curl at the first down marker before being honored with a gold #88 jersey in stores. Cedric Donaldson retook the momentum in the second half with a 31-yard interception return. Raion Hill, just because.

Think of him as a '90s Zenon

That game opened my eyes as an LSU fan, though. Before that, my twelve years of highlights included a 12-6 win over #5 Auburn in '95 (Troy Twillie, back of the north endzone) and a 10-2 season in 1996. 28-21 made me realize that SEC greatness is something tangible; previously in the '90s, it was pretty much Florida's and Alabama's show. As soon as Herb Tyler ran the clock out, "Hey Baby" was reverberating, and the goal posts were down, I realized that things have always been fleeting in the SEC. A certain coach, a certain set of players, and we could become 90s Florida without the visor. Why not us? We had an entire state of talent just waiting to play for the home team and one of the best homefield advantages in all of sports.

It still remains the best game I've ever witnessed in person, and everytime I see October 11, I immediately assciate the date with 28-21 like a birthday or wedding anniversary. So if you're feeling down like I am, next time you see a Gator fan, remind him of our special Nine Year Anniversary. He probably won't even remember who Jacquez Green was.

- P.T.

It's Midseason; We All Need a Shot in the Arm: Our Namesake:



Back when even-numbered years weren't so painful. Ho-ly Cow!

- P.T.

Crisis at Highland and Lee: Get the Scientists To Reprogram the Material Desires Subfunction, ASAP:

I received a text message Saturday morning during College Gameday that our favorite reliable quarterback had one more thing to process during Saturday's game-- the man had his 2002 Chevrolet Tahoe stolen that Thursday night.

You can make out the lavish plaid pattern of his Friday walk-through suit. Now put some touch on the ball, son.

"Russell's vehicle was a 2002 Chevrolet Tahoe SUV. He noticed it gone from the parking lot of his apartment complex on Friday morning as he was preparing to join the team for the flight to Gainesville. Russell, a junior from Mobile, Ala., lives off campus on Highland Road toward Lee Drive." - Shreveport Times

"I think it was about 11:30 Thursday night. He called me and we prayed together. We pray together every night. And then he got up the next morning and his car was stolen. He was pretty casual about it. He told me, 'Mom, it's just material things.' JaMarcus called me Friday morning and he didn't seem upset at all. He just said, 'Momma, guess what happened?' I said, 'What?' He said, 'Somebody stole my car.'" -Zina Anderson, JR's mother

Is it possible for me to love this guy anymore? Uh, yeah, you should've asked me last week. But, right now, he's my third-favorite LSU quarterback of my lifetime (Davey, Mauck).

"That was my first car. It feels crazy -people taking things that don't belong to them."

It feels crazy... people taking things that don't belong to them.

That's right, there's a distinct possibility JaMaicus was thinking about police reports and Geico over Marcus Thomas and Reggie Nelson that afternoon in the Swamp. But, nah, he's a fourth-year junior; he undoubtedly shook it off Friday afternoon and focused on the game, right? The thing is (I love JaMarcus) he pretty much admitted to the opposite:

"Russell admitted he was mad about the incident, 'especially when we’re getting ready to play a ballgame.' He then chastised himself for being worried about 'material things.'" - Baton Rouge Advocate

JaMarcus, you said it was only material things! Is it just me, or is it impossible to visualize JR chastising himself? Even after that goal-line fumble, he mouthed a frustrated 'fuck,' but it's not like he punched a wall or anything. What was the fate of the car, though? I mean, he could've easily gotten paced and forgotten where he parked the car, right?

"He was told it was completely stripped." - LSU SID Michael Bonnette

"It won't hurt me any, though. I'll try to get another one and just roll from there."

This does not sound like a man chastising himself for worrying about material things. Unfortunately, he couldn't employ the 'roll from there' mantra on Florida field Saturday.

- P.T.

Picking Up the Pieces: My God, Is This 2004?:

Where do you begin? I'd like to say we simply got beaten by a better team; that would be tremendously easier to take. But at the upper echelon of the conference, the differences in talent are just too neligible to blame. We're as talented as Florida, I'm sure of it.

Now, for a Florida team so reliant on young talent (remember their past recruiting class was consensus top-2), they simply played with more poise and patience. Everything I've said or thought about this team being mature and professional enough to play their near-best every game can now be taken with a grain of salt.

Any team is going to make costly mistakes, that's inevitable. But the way a team responds to those mistakes says even more about their mental toughness and leadership. The game wasn't over after that JaMarcus fumble, but this year, we don't have a Kyle Williams or Chad Lavalais to make sure the team realized that.

Ever since the Saban years, we've typically been a third quarter team. Last year in Tuscaloosa, for example, the third quarter was the only reason we even brought that game into overtime. So I was deflated going into the half, for sure, but I expected some kind of comeback. Any halftime locker room momentum immediately fell to the ground with Early Doucet in the LSU endzone. And before you knew it, a manageable seven-point deficit became an insurmountable 23-7 score in the Swamp. I don't care if you run JaMarcus no huddle the rest of the half, we're not good enough to give Florida sixteen points and even it up in thirty minutes of football.

The lack of no-huddle drives would have to be my biggest complaint from a playcalling standpoint. JaMarcus's game relies so heavily on timing and repetition, even ol' Verne Lundquist was wondering why the no-huddle was not employed earlier. Jimbo Fisher's always been overrated since his 2003 patented Horizontal Passing Game; I just have to wonder how much of his offensive strategy is constricted by Miles's conservative philosophies.

Where to now? Well, a BCS bowl is out of the question, along with an SEC West division crown. The best we can do now is the Capital One Bowl, which I imagine would require a 10-2 record, since those Capital One Execs are itching to get Tennessee down there. A more realistic prediction would be the Cotton Bowl, a game we haven't been to since 2002, or the Outback Bowl, where we haven't been in at least 19 seasons. This team appears headed for 9-3, dropping a game to Tennessee, Alabama, or Arkansas. I just hope the underclassmen learn something about maturity, leadership, and mental toughness from this road-heavy season.

Florida, on the other hand, is positioned nicely for the SEC East title and a legitimate shot at the national one. They're a team getting better with every game and could definitely beat Auburn next week with similar offensive execution. I don't see any reason not to pull for Florida to win the whole thing; they represent the SEC exceptionally better this season than last. A team that got physically dominated last year in Baton Rouge looked much tougher and returned the favor.

Sure, it was painful to watch the special teams miscues, failures in pressure-filled situations, and JaMarcus's worst passes since last year's Florida game. But it was personally more painful to watch a team that is not mature or well-coached enough to regain focus from costly mistakes.

- P.T.

Let’s Make Urban Cry Again: Week 6 Preview Part Two:

Any mention of any apparent LSU favoritism by media prognosticators has just been taken to a new level. And I’m loving it. No, really, I can’t hear enough stories about why Glenn Dorsey is nicknamed ‘Putt’ (he liked a putt putt commercial as a kid—kind of lame, play defense), why Florida won’t come up with any effective offensive schemes, and why JaMarcus is the best quarterback EVAR now. Here’s EDSBS’s take on it:

Rejected headers included:

“Chris Leak folds skirts, runs for panic room weeping at mere mention of Bo Pelini.”

“Les Miles: ‘It’s not arrogance if you really do expect to drink beer from your opponent’s polished skull after the game’.”

“Beano Cook: Gators will be devastated by Heisman hopeful Billy Cannon.”

“ESPN INsider prediction: Florida stands exactly zero fucking chance of getting so much as a goddamned fucking first down, you miserable shitbag.”

Let’s play football, my hands are cold.

So rise early at 9 tomorrow, Tiger fans, because Desmond Howard is featuring Putt et al. in an extended segment! Alright, Tyson Jackson facetime. The money line for Marlon Favorite (the best rapper on the team) dropping a flow is approximately -220 right now.

BIG FAV

This week is completely different from three weeks ago for me. I actually like Florida and pull for them about 80% of the time. Just two teams who’ve gotten better partly due to the fact that they play each other every year. Okay, one. The thing that worries me the most is Florida kind of resembles a 2005 Alabama with offense… they’ve simply found a way to win close games while taking a purely week-by-week approach to a title. That’s fine, Russell To Bowe paced any ‘Bama hopes of winning anything other than the Cotton Bowl. We might as well rename it the SBC Bowl Featuring a Senior-Heavy SEC West Team with Silly Notions of Winning a Conference Title Until LSU Came to Town. Let’s do it, Tigers.

Just saw a shot of Our Favorite Amish-Bearded One walking around the Swamp in a pimp brown plaid suit. Let’s fucking do it.

When Florida has the ball

An eerily similar situation as ours—no tangible running game with or without DeShaun Wynn (I actually want him to play), freakishly good wide receivers, and a veteran quarterback who’s sometimes not all there. The two biggest differences, and they are related: an offense that spreads the field east-west more effectively, and Tebow.

Watching highlights of last year’s game, though, I noticed we swarmed to the spread offense exceptionally fast, especially when the ball was near or behind the line of scrimmage. But you might as well not even try to compare last year’s Florida spread and this year’s version. Is it just me, or does Urban Meyer pull out his best Jim Mora Jr. impression in close games? I wouldn’t trust coaches like that. Oh, wait, we have one.

Nike doesn't like this guy too much, I'm guessing

Our defensive line will dominate… I’m more certain about that than anything else. This is the most inexperienced line in a long time for Florida? OK, we’ll take it. The key is our play of midrange linebackers like Darry Beckwith and Jesse (gasp!) Daniels, who will line up at the will for the first time this week. If we can play a good, smart, non-overaggressive containment, we’re set. I just think Florida might put something together that really makes our defensive aggression backfire on us.

When things aren’t going too well early for UF, and they seem to be a slow starter this year, Tebow will be called on frequently. I just don’t get it with him. He runs the same play every time; even Tyson and Ricky understand that. We’ve already faced one Matt Jones in the past few years. And he actually threw the ball.

Prediction

We come out blazing with a new-look Jimbo taking full reins and score on our first drive. Then we play Miles ball for a little too long, and Florida inches back into it. And then we realize that time’s getting pretty low, and decide to score pretty late in the game. So, it’s almost exactly like the 2005 game, hopefully without the five turnovers. LSU 20 Florida 10 Final.

Get tough, Tigers.

- P.T.

+1.5 Is More Like It: A Week 6 Preview Part One:

The way this week started, one would have certainly thought Florida was the ninth-ranked team going to fifth-ranked LSU’s stadium this weekend. But Vegas got their wits about them, the line going from LSU -2 to LSU +1.5 in nearly three days. But judging about every piece of media I’ve seen, LSU’s already got the game wrapped up. We figure out some kind of way to win in the Swamp, even going so far as to say we “prove [we’re] the best one-loss team in the country.” Defense just too good, too many injuries for UF, JaMarcus is just playing too well.

As our favorite leather enthusiast would say, “That’s why they play the games."

Why would I go and do that? That is so... stupid.

So I’ll start with the completely original examination of each side of the ball for each team, offering a prediction at the end. Today, the LSU offense versus the Florida defense.

When LSU has the ball

The biggest difference we should see is a commitment to using the pass to set up the run, the complete opposite of three weeks ago in the Plains. Though I’d like to think that between Charles Scott and Alley Broussard (I don’t even consider Justin Vincent anymore) one of them should get hot and get at least four yards a carry. It’s not going to happen, unless we run some more sweeps to the outside during no-huddle situations.

Well, at least we can hope to enjoy these last few games with Jimbo.

And if Jimbo had any balls (and I think he does, actually) he’d start the game in the no-huddle offense. JaMarcus can’t think, or there goes errant throw number one, and I think Fisher realizes that now. Will Miles be as conservative as the Auburn game? He knows he needs a defining road and SEC win this season, with ‘defining’ pretty much equaling ‘top-five’ at this point for the program. So I say no, and he gives Jimbo more slack with the offensive playcalling, which should be a great thing, judging by the Tulane and State games.

I can be completely confident in saying that among Dwayne Bowe, Early Doucet, and Buster Davis, one of them will have a huge game. We’re never going to see a trio like them again, Tiger fans. They’ve become such good route runners, our best play in the repertoire now would have to be the ten-and-slant inside, which virtually eliminates any pass rush or impact from the defensive line and can easily turn into twenty-five yards with a broken tackle. I trust JaMarcus with this route.

Uh, you... are not... eighteen years old in this picture

However, I’m terribly worried about JR with his longer passes. Dude’s looked like everything his Mr. Alabama Football title should indicate, but I’m still thinking in 2004 mode here. Back then, JaMarcus would play really well one week, and then pull a Gainesville-in-October-2004 the next. My god, it was so bad Marcus Randall was considered the savior of the program for one week. JaMarcus (as I’m writing this, Holtz just called him ‘Jamaicus’… there’s your nickname, Tank) is simply the key to the game.

You were relevant in college football once? Really? Man, 1992 is like a billion years ago.

On the other side, the Florida defense is much improved from last year. They’ve probably got the second-best defensive line in the conference and have proven that with their SEC-leading run defense. I’m as scared of the name Brandon Siler as I’ve ever been; he filled Channing Crowder’s shoes very nicely at linebacker. So, uh, let’s just stop talking about running the ball against this front seven.

We match up tremendously well against their pass defense, however, and this will be where most of our scoring opportunities on offense will come from. Reggie Nelson has looked better than even Mighty LaRon Landry this year, although I’m still convinced the same player has worn #1 in the UF defensive backfield for like eight years now. Every year, there’s some player with extra-long dreads and extra-dark skin at safety who also runs track and may or may not return kicks for them. They call it ‘Reggie Nelson’ this year, apparently.

You're such a dude who wears #1. Nice tie, Reg.

I think we’ll know a lot after our first offensive drive; a three-and-out probably means we’re cooked. I just think if we can convert that mental preparation, which Miles’ team always seems to have on the road (save Georgia), to sound execution, we’ll drive a good part of the field early.

Tebow, he's so dreamy... Prediction: Florida Tebow LSU 0 Final.

Back tomorrow with Florida offense vs. LSU defense. Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow… Daniels.

- P.T.