Most of the bowl projections came out today, and Brad Edwards had his Road to the BCS last night. While most of the forecasters predicted an LSU/Michigan Rose Bowl (officially putting HTF in denial), it seems more likely that the Rose would elect to send Notre Dame to Pasadena for the first time since 1925.
Remember how HTF wanted a lasting image to summarize the 2006 season? Here it is. I love this photo; it will be added to the shrine at season's end.Several articles appeared over the weekend claiming that, in actuality, LSU's BCS hopes depend greatly on Florida's performance in the conference title game. Should Florida win, the Gators would earn an automatic berth to the Sugar Bowl as SEC champion. Should Florida lose, however, the 11-2 Gators should be a prime candidate for the Orange Bowl due to proximity; the ACC champion between Georgia Tech and Wake Forest wouldn't sell near their quota. Hometown favorite UF would more than make up for those empty seats despite losing to LSU-victim Arkansas, however unfair it may seem.
However, there's a contractual situation no one-- even Edwards-- seems to be mentioning. Should #4 Florida lose, the #5 Tigers should pass the Gators (currently a .079 differential), climbing into the fourth spot. Even 'the computers' would recognize that Florida lost to the same team on a neutral field that LSU had just beaten on the road. Per the official BCS Selection Procedures:
6. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 5, and if no team qualifies under paragraph No. 5 and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 4 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.
The '6' represents the sixth provision for automatic qualification. Take a minute to browse the rules yourself. Correct HTF if we're wrong, but per the rules, here are your automatic BCS bids (presumably) if Florida loses:
Bowl Championship Series bids (10):
1, 2: Ohio State and USC, per qualification 1.
3, 4, 5, 6: Arkansas, Georgia Tech/Wake Forest, Louisville/Rutgers, Oklahoma/Nebraska, per qualification 2.
7: Boise State, per qualification 3.
8: Notre Dame, per qualification 4, or simply because they're Notre Dame.
9: Michigan, per qualification 5.
10: LSU, per qualification 6.
So the Rose or Orange would be forced to select LSU. This is of course assuming Wisconsin and Louisville do not pass the Tigers (highly unlikely, since one's awaiting the Capital One Bowl and one's out of quality opponents). Also, Tiger fans, we're big West Virginia fans this weekend; a one-loss Louisville is a much more attractive at-large team than a two-loss Rutgers or West Virginia. Couch burning?
Of course, Florida winning wouldn't produce nearly as automatic a situation, but might be more comforting-- Florida would head to the Sugar, leaving no lower than the Orange with the smart choice of selecting LSU as its at-large team. Really, no other school-- even a one-loss, possibly-at-large Louisville-- belongs in the conversation. So, yeah, HTF thinks we're going to a money bowl.
Oranges all over my apartment floor,
- P.T.
[By the way, I noticed my error here shortly after emailing Ivan Maisel. The paragraph reads "if no team qualifies under paragraph number 5." Michigan will qualify under paragraph 5, therefore nullifying paragraph six. Damn semantics; this is why I could never be a lawyer. Daaaaaah dah-dah dah-dah-dah Go! Gators!]
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