Monday, November 13, 2006

Bowl Projections: Just When We Thought USC Was Finished...

I'm only going to delve into the bowls I think I'll actually watch. Really, I can't tell you if Nevada is better than UTEP or South Florida.

PetroSun Independence Bowl: Shreveport, LA

Alabama vs. Kansas State

The ballsy pick by the PetroSun suits would be to take a much hotter Kentucky team to represent the SEC. But as usual, it's all about filling seats. Kansas State beats out Texas Tech and Missouri with their late surge of national attention from the Texas win.

One thing I learned Saturday: how hard this dude is.

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl: San Diego, CA
California vs. Texas A&M

Congratulations, Cal, not only did you lose over ten million (and a possible national championship berth) by losing to Arizona on Saturday, you also will make your second Holiday Bowl trip in three seasons. Texas A&M is ever so slightly emerging back onto the national scene, and the Holiday is a much-needed vacation to San Diego for Aggie fans, whose team continues to redefine the stomach-punch loss.

Alamo Bowl: San Antonio, TX
Nebraska vs. Purdue

Purdue represents me looking up to see who is fifth ranked in the Big Ten right now. Nebraska makes their second trip in as many seasons, but Alamo officials won't be worried, as Cornhusker fans would bring 50,000+ to the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia.

Chik-Fil-A Bowl: Atlanta, GA

Georgia vs. Wake Forest

Georgia might have dipped into Independence Bowl territory with a loss to Auburn. Instead, even with a loss to Ga. Tech at this point, the hometown Dawgs are a lock to sell tickets in Atlanta. Wake Forest will likely get snubbed of a Gator Bowl berth due to fanbase.

I want a Wake Forest-Rutgers title game.

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Dallas, TX
Oklahoma vs. Auburn

This is the annual bowl with two highly-rated preseason teams that looks increasingly good on paper. Oklahoma will probably win out yet has little chance of gaining enough ground in the BCS to earn an at-large berth. Auburn's just treading water at this point. A loss to Alabama might subject them to the Chik-Fil-A.

Outback Bowl: Tampa, FL
Tennessee vs. Penn State

Probably the surest thing here. Perhaps no other non-BCS bowl has more of a chance to sell out. Penn State fans will gladly make the winter trip to Florida, possibly seeing Paterno coach for the last time (you never know). You can't spell Outback without UT. Really, no loser here.

Toyota Gator Bowl: Jacksonville, FL
Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech

Big East rematch! Get your tickets early! My God, if LSU's not playing in the morning, I'm not waking up this early hungover. Nice farewell tour for Schiano before he takes the Miami job. Virginia Tech and the goiter make their second consecutive trip to J-ville, hopefully losing all their players for a full eight months (we play them second week of the 2007 season).

Really, the comedy potential of Schiano is endless, especially if he takes a bigtime job.

Capital One Bowl: Orlando, FL
Wisconsin vs. Florida

Capital One usually hates to take the SEC Championship loser, but this year provides an exception. The Florida/Arkansas loser is almost guaranteed to be a top-ten team, neither of which have hit up the Citrus in a few years (I can't remember Arkansas ever going, actually). Wisconsin continues their trend as That Team of 2006 by scoring first and re-playing the subsequent kickoff over 160 times, abusing 3-2-5-e and sealing a 7-0 win.

Rose Bowl: Pasadena, CA
Michigan vs. West Virginia

Couch-burnin' on The Tonight Show! The Rose Bowl gets the first at-large choice (the Ohio State/Michigan loser definitely) since the #1 team in the country this season will be from the Big Ten. The Rose will also get the #2 choice among the unassigned teams for reasons you will learn later. The pool of unassigned teams will probably include Notre Dame, Boise State, West Virginia (no Big East contractual committment to play anywhere), and one other team TBD. A Michigan/Notre Dame rematch will probably be avoided, and Boise State's out of the question. Since West Virginia fans travel extremely well, a logical choice would be the Mountaineers. Interesting matchup of the WV running game versus the top-ranked Wolverine run defense.

Story came out this week that Lloyd motivated his team by showing them Cinderella Man in the offseason. Oh, really? Blockbuster must've run out of Braveheart and Gladiator.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Glendale, AZ
Texas vs. Boise State

Another rather certain matchup. These teams have been projected for the Fiesta about four or five weeks ago, though San Jose State nearly ruined Boise State's BCS future this past weekend. Texas seems more than able to win the Big 12 even without Colt McCoy, and the Horns are contractually obligated to play at the Taco. The Fiesta gets the last of the at-large picks and is stuck with the Blue Fielders, who will earn an automatic BCS appearance with a top-12 finish.

FedEx Orange Bowl: Miami, FL
Georgia Tech vs. LSU

There, I said it. The Tigers winning out means a probable top-six BCS finish, after USC/Notre Dame, Rutgers/West Virginia, and Arkansas/Florida. A quality win over Arkansas would probably be enough for LSU to leap at least a few teams. With one of the better winning streaks in the country, as much talent as anyone, and a traveling fanbase, why not us? The Orange gets an at-large pick this year after Rose, Rose, and Sugar. Obviously, bowls will avoid Boise like the plague, so this slot is really wide open. Georgia Tech is contractually obligated to play in the Orange if they win the ACC Championship. Bubes, we're going to Miami.

Might want to sit this one out, Chev.

Allstate Sugar Bowl: New Orleans, LA

Notre Dame vs. Arkansas

Really an interesting matchup, and two completely opposite fanbases. Arkansas will be contractually obligated to the Sugar as the SEC champion, and the Sugar gets the third choice of unassigned teams due to the four-year rotation. The Rose passing on Notre Dame would make the Sugar (and New Orleans in general) extremely happy to accept a 10-2 Irish. Arkansas, who has not been in a major bowl since joining the SEC in 1992, would quickly sell every ticket. Should Arkansas beat Florida in Atlanta, this matchup is almost definite.

BCS Championship Game: Glendale, AZ
(2) USC vs. (1) Ohio State
Thus, the Rose, with its Pac-10 and Big Ten ties, would receive the first two at-large selections. I think USC is able to beat California, Notre Dame, and UCLA. California has nothing to play for but the Holiday Bowl, which is likely even with a loss to USC. Notre Dame matches up well against SC, but I think the Trojans are mature enough to win with a berth on the line. Ohio State, obviously, would earn the top spot with a win over Michigan. The Buckeyes would be making their fourth trip to the Fiesta in five seasons.

You stay classy, Columbus. Hey, nice Photoshop.

My head hurts. BCS in review later.

- P.T.

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