Bowl Projections: Just When We Thought USC Was Finished...

I'm only going to delve into the bowls I think I'll actually watch. Really, I can't tell you if Nevada is better than UTEP or South Florida.

PetroSun Independence Bowl: Shreveport, LA
Alabama vs. Kansas State
The ballsy pick by the PetroSun suits would be to take a much hotter Kentucky team to represent the SEC. But as usual, it's all about filling seats. Kansas State beats out Texas Tech and Missouri with their late surge of national attention from the Texas win.

One thing I learned Saturday: how hard this dude is.

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl: San Diego, CA
California vs. Texas A&M
Congratulations, Cal, not only did you lose over ten million (and a possible national championship berth) by losing to Arizona on Saturday, you also will make your second Holiday Bowl trip in three seasons. Texas A&M is ever so slightly emerging back onto the national scene, and the Holiday is a much-needed vacation to San Diego for Aggie fans, whose team continues to redefine the stomach-punch loss.

Alamo Bowl: San Antonio, TX
Nebraska vs. Purdue
Purdue represents me looking up to see who is fifth ranked in the Big Ten right now. Nebraska makes their second trip in as many seasons, but Alamo officials won't be worried, as Cornhusker fans would bring 50,000+ to the San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia.

Chik-Fil-A Bowl: Atlanta, GA
Georgia vs. Wake Forest
Georgia might have dipped into Independence Bowl territory with a loss to Auburn. Instead, even with a loss to Ga. Tech at this point, the hometown Dawgs are a lock to sell tickets in Atlanta. Wake Forest will likely get snubbed of a Gator Bowl berth due to fanbase.

I want a Wake Forest-Rutgers title game.

AT&T Cotton Bowl: Dallas, TX
Oklahoma vs. Auburn
This is the annual bowl with two highly-rated preseason teams that looks increasingly good on paper. Oklahoma will probably win out yet has little chance of gaining enough ground in the BCS to earn an at-large berth. Auburn's just treading water at this point. A loss to Alabama might subject them to the Chik-Fil-A.

Outback Bowl: Tampa, FL
Tennessee vs. Penn State
Probably the surest thing here. Perhaps no other non-BCS bowl has more of a chance to sell out. Penn State fans will gladly make the winter trip to Florida, possibly seeing Paterno coach for the last time (you never know). You can't spell Outback without UT. Really, no loser here.

Toyota Gator Bowl: Jacksonville, FL
Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech
Big East rematch! Get your tickets early! My God, if LSU's not playing in the morning, I'm not waking up this early hungover. Nice farewell tour for Schiano before he takes the Miami job. Virginia Tech and the goiter make their second consecutive trip to J-ville, hopefully losing all their players for a full eight months (we play them second week of the 2007 season).

Really, the comedy potential of Schiano is endless, especially if he takes a bigtime job.

Capital One Bowl: Orlando, FL
Wisconsin vs. Florida
Capital One usually hates to take the SEC Championship loser, but this year provides an exception. The Florida/Arkansas loser is almost guaranteed to be a top-ten team, neither of which have hit up the Citrus in a few years (I can't remember Arkansas ever going, actually). Wisconsin continues their trend as That Team of 2006 by scoring first and re-playing the subsequent kickoff over 160 times, abusing 3-2-5-e and sealing a 7-0 win.

Rose Bowl: Pasadena, CA
Michigan vs. West Virginia
Couch-burnin' on The Tonight Show! The Rose Bowl gets the first at-large choice (the Ohio State/Michigan loser definitely) since the #1 team in the country this season will be from the Big Ten. The Rose will also get the #2 choice among the unassigned teams for reasons you will learn later. The pool of unassigned teams will probably include Notre Dame, Boise State, West Virginia (no Big East contractual committment to play anywhere), and one other team TBD. A Michigan/Notre Dame rematch will probably be avoided, and Boise State's out of the question. Since West Virginia fans travel extremely well, a logical choice would be the Mountaineers. Interesting matchup of the WV running game versus the top-ranked Wolverine run defense.

Story came out this week that Lloyd motivated his team by showing them Cinderella Man in the offseason. Oh, really? Blockbuster must've run out of Braveheart and Gladiator.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl: Glendale, AZ
Texas vs. Boise State
Another rather certain matchup. These teams have been projected for the Fiesta about four or five weeks ago, though San Jose State nearly ruined Boise State's BCS future this past weekend. Texas seems more than able to win the Big 12 even without Colt McCoy, and the Horns are contractually obligated to play at the Taco. The Fiesta gets the last of the at-large picks and is stuck with the Blue Fielders, who will earn an automatic BCS appearance with a top-12 finish.

FedEx Orange Bowl: Miami, FL
Georgia Tech vs. LSU
There, I said it. The Tigers winning out means a probable top-six BCS finish, after USC/Notre Dame, Rutgers/West Virginia, and Arkansas/Florida. A quality win over Arkansas would probably be enough for LSU to leap at least a few teams. With one of the better winning streaks in the country, as much talent as anyone, and a traveling fanbase, why not us? The Orange gets an at-large pick this year after Rose, Rose, and Sugar. Obviously, bowls will avoid Boise like the plague, so this slot is really wide open. Georgia Tech is contractually obligated to play in the Orange if they win the ACC Championship. Bubes, we're going to Miami.

Might want to sit this one out, Chev.

Allstate Sugar Bowl: New Orleans, LA
Notre Dame vs. Arkansas
Really an interesting matchup, and two completely opposite fanbases. Arkansas will be contractually obligated to the Sugar as the SEC champion, and the Sugar gets the third choice of unassigned teams due to the four-year rotation. The Rose passing on Notre Dame would make the Sugar (and New Orleans in general) extremely happy to accept a 10-2 Irish. Arkansas, who has not been in a major bowl since joining the SEC in 1992, would quickly sell every ticket. Should Arkansas beat Florida in Atlanta, this matchup is almost definite.

BCS Championship Game: Glendale, AZ
(2) USC vs. (1) Ohio State
Thus, the Rose, with its Pac-10 and Big Ten ties, would receive the first two at-large selections. I think USC is able to beat California, Notre Dame, and UCLA. California has nothing to play for but the Holiday Bowl, which is likely even with a loss to USC. Notre Dame matches up well against SC, but I think the Trojans are mature enough to win with a berth on the line. Ohio State, obviously, would earn the top spot with a win over Michigan. The Buckeyes would be making their fourth trip to the Fiesta in five seasons.

You stay classy, Columbus. Hey, nice Photoshop.

My head hurts. BCS in review later.

- P.T.

Loving Mike Shula, Hating Chevis Jackson: Week 10 Recap:

That one kind of escalated in the first half, huh? If not for a timely Chase Pittman strip-and-fumble to end the half (where you been all year, Chase?), we could have sent 'Bama fans away with the usual giddy eighty-mile drive to New Orleans to party. Instead, they probably took I-12 home instead. Some thoughts:

• Like clockwork, captains JaMarcus, LaRon, Ceej Jackson, and Ryan Willis failed to win the coin toss, less than six days after I devoted an entire column to the most interesting story of the season. Sometimes college football is so predictable. So the offense took the field before the defense for the first time in 2006.

• Can we just take a minute and devote a few more words to perhaps the most talented quarterback in LSU history? One part invincible, one part collected, three parts efficient, fifty parts I can throw the football out of the fucking stadium. Last night I talked to my dad with the usual phone call after a decent win. He mentioned that he actually doesn't want JaMarcus to leave (oh, really?) but keeps hearing rumors that 'Maicus is a solid first-round pick and is leaning more and more towards packing up. I haven't been in this much denial since the first few days after Katrina. No, no, I haven't heard any of those rumors. I hope the average fan is beginning to realize that life after JaMarcus in 2007 or 2008-- with an even more high-profile, unbreakable, cancerously cocky replacement, no less-- is going to be downright miserable.

Long. White. Socks. With the addition of the Nike swoosh, it's pretty 1995.

• I forgot how nightmarish those first few chords of "Hey, Alabama!" are. My God, they're relentless with it. Years like '96 and '02, my ears were ringing with Dummm Dummm Dum-Dummm... Dum Dum Dum Dum Dum Dum Dum Dummm Dummm Dum-Dumm.... for about three weeks after the fact.

• Thanks to Georgia for getting my hopes sky high yesterday; thanks to Tennessee for downright shitting the bed. See, a Georgia win over Auburn coupled with a potential Tennessee win over Arkansas meant that LSU would control its own destiny in making the conference championship. Now, I'm facing the fact that I should take Houston Nutt seriously, that Darren McFadden is probably the best football player in the nation, and that our Atlanta hopes come down to Mississippi State and Alabama. But, hey, at least Auburn lost about ten million on Saturday.

Hey Cox, can't wait to play you next October, when Kenny's not in your backfield! - HTF.

• I was watching last night's game with the Florida fans who were actually pretty relieved Arkansas paced the Vols. We'd love to get another shot at Florida on a neutral field. Love to. Also, given the fact that Florida is probably the equivalent of Florida by Ron Zook: 2004 right now, I really wanted another shot at them. Oh well, Arkansas fans will be pretty easy to make fun of on New Year's night downtown.

You look hard enough, you'll find an Arkansas-related frosted cereal image. Pig sooey?

• Chevis Jackson. Where was I? I wouldn't trust this man with delivering my chinese food. Seriously, hope for the receiver to drop the pass and then celebrate, and maybe every now and then interfere just for good measure. I'm looking at you too, Zenon, who has strung together some of his worst games ever these past few weeks. John Parker Wilson to Jimmy Johns? Let's hope we're not playing Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl.

Chev-Chev does his best to muff something else.

• The funniest moment of the night was listening to Mike Patrick mention that Alley Broussard has dropped down to 238. Uh, I don't think so. I'm pretty sure the dude's gained weight since the opener; we even had a closeup of his neck roll while he was sitting on the bench. ESPN Full Circle would've been great last night.

Hey, Alley, you're so fat that the announcers are calling you the fullback and Hester the running back. Just thought you should know.

• Alabama, as expected, threw everything at us last night: onside kicks, fake punts, reverse passes, etc. Season's really in desperation mode; a win against Auburn might be the only saving grace for Our Boy #11. Speaking of Mike, I think he goes right up there with Jim Haslett, Art Shell, Jim Mora Jr., Jim Fassel, and Urban Meyer for having the worst possible sideline face when things are going wrong. I'm pretty sure he's my favorite.

Sometimes, you make that extra click, and your job gets a lot easier.

• Maybe we have a running game now! Maybe Keiland, Jake, and Alley provide just enough changes of pace to get the job done. Maybe our offensive line has finally learned how to create holes. Now, now, let's not get too arrogant and pace all 150 lbs. of Trindon Holliday in the backfield-- he'd turn to dust. Speaking of Trin, they said he ran a 4.27 40 from an upright stance. We're going to win the title next season.

• Two of my favorite LaRon moments back-to-back last night. First, he welcomes John Parker Wilson to the Alabama job by giving him the Brodie Croyle Treatment, then he breaks up maybe the most ill-conceived fake punt possible by flinging the punter around by the facemask. Pelini, who was standing right there, had a great reaction, in the grey sweatshirt no less. One of the worst facemasks I've ever seen. Five yards. Offsetting penalties. Repeat the down. Game over.

Two weeks in a row of wanting to make fun of the opposing quarterback, two huge disappointments.

• We've now won the last four and six of the last seven against 'Bama. Mike Shula is 0-5-1 against the Tigers. We're getting some of their best athletes. I might actually bury a copy of this blog and dig it up twenty years from now just to have a good laugh.

So what now? Is there anything to be halfway optimistic about? No team in the nation has played a tougher schedule than LSU-- the Arkansas game will mark the fourth road game against a top-eight team. Going 2-2 in those games is in no way disappointing, and we're the highest-rated two-loss team in the country. A few more one-loss teams losing could mean an at-large berth for the Tigers, possibly pacing the ACC winner in the Orange Bowl.

Ga Tech, Wake, or Maryland? Book me a ticket.

But hey, I'm the same wide-eyed fan who had visions of LSU in the Rose Bowl the week before the Florida game. Go ahead, dream it, you fuckin' dreamers.

- P.T.

Around the Bowl and Down the Hole... You Know the Rest: Week 10:

This weekend, we finally get one of 'those games' in Tigertown-- an opponent not scraping the bottom of the barrell as a whole, but not necessarily peaking as a top-ten team either. In fact, this is the first 'medium' game of the season for LSU, and it's week ten. Unbelievable.

Which makes me all the more worried. I could just spout out memorable wins and losses against the Tide over the years, pace a few Googled John Parker Wilson and Mike Shula photos, predict a score, and call it a blog. Actually, that's what I'll do; the formula worked last week and I'm not about to change it.

Come on, Mike, win just enough games to stay at 'Bama. Just not this one.

The amount of 'Bama hatred for a given LSU fan is a pure function of age alone. Anyone older than me probably owns three different 'Beat 'Bama!' buttons from three decades. Anyone older than me by twenty years or more has become so embittered, jaded, and apoplectic from season upon season of stomach-punch losses, most of which occurred at home. In fact, I now suspect that the 1998 Alabama game in Baton Rouge chopped about fifteen years from the average male life expectancy in Louisiana. And, according to my dad, there were about six or seven of those games in the '70s and '80s.

Um, yeah. This gives you an idea.

Really, it's the Gulf Coast version of Yankees/Red Sox. When we shocked the league and won the conference title in 2001, Alabama headed to Baton Rouge in 2002 and embarrassed us to the tune of 30-0. It could have easily been 70-0. And this was the Cotton Bowl LSU team in Saban's third year, not some sleepwalking Curley Hallman squad. Silly LSU, thinking they can become a Western Division power. The Tide do not lose in Baton Rouge, even when we're on a three-year probation.

Nothing was worse than seeing a freshman named Su. Alexander make his debut in 1996.

So for this age reason, I'm not the best one to write a hate-riddled Alabama preview. Auburn is my personal 'Bama, and it doesn't look like that will change anytime soon. But, my, how the tide has turned in this divisional rivalry; LSU has won the last three and four of the past five. And when you consider the past ten years, LSU has only lost in Tuscaloosa once, in 1999, part of Gerry Dinardo's Farewell Tour. But we're playing in Baton Rouge, where the Tide either play above their abilities, downright destroy us, or (usually) both. We've only beaten Alabama in Baton Rouge twice in the last 37 years. Read that sentence again.

But this isn't your Alabama team of the past three decades. Mike Shula, a perplexing head coach decision from the very beginning, has received alumni pressure for not being able to spark offense or match wits with almost any SEC coach. The sooner Alabama realizes they're not great enough to promote from within-- big tradition in Tuscaloosa, you know, the coach has to have some kind of Alabama connection, unless you're Mike Price-- the sooner they return to the top of the Western Division. Which, at the very least, is where Tide fans think they belong.

I want to party with Mike Price. It's comforting to know there are actually strippers named Destiny.

Last season, the senior leadership aligned well enough to produce an 8-0 start. One Sports Illustrated cover appearance later, LSU quelled any national title dreams by winning 16-13 in overtime at Bryant Denny Stadium. Is it just me, or does every SEC stadium have the same name? With many of those senior leaders moving on to the NFL, the Tide are led by first-year starter John Parker Wilson, probably the most perfect name possible for a 'Bama quarterback. The defense, in a rather transitional season, is still the fourteenth-ranked defense in the country.

Posers. Can't tell whether this is funny, lame, depressing, delightful, or all of the above.

What worries me most about Alabama is their tendency to play well in big games on the road. Their losing efforts at Florida and Tennessee were much closer than the score indicates. Sure, they'll lose to Mississippi States now and then, but they'll definitely show up to the LSU and Auburn games. With Mike Shula feeling a Dubose-like level of heat, an upset in Baton Rouge couldn't be more well-timed. Shit.

The prediction: LSU 27 Alabama 10.

- P.T.

Ranking the Top and Bottom Five JaMarcus Moments:

Nearly five days removed from perhaps Maicus's most rollercoaster performance yet, I can never remember a quarterback with such little grey area of support in Tigertown. Everyone loved Tommy Hodson, Rohan, and especially Matthew Mauck. Everyone hated Jamie Howard and Marcus Randall. Josh Booty? Perhaps touted by a few racists here and there.

Hopefully I never have to image-search 'Booty' again.

But no one has divided the LSU fanbase like JaMarcus. There are people like me, easily enamored with hype and pure talent from signing day on, but still stubborn to admit this talent hasn't necessarily translated to success like it should. I distinctly remember being at a Baton Rouge party in the summer of 2004, trying to figure out how Marcus Randall would be defending the title instead of a Daunte Culpepper clone with the ability to throw the football over 100 yards. "Dude, I fuckin' saw him in spring practice, JaMarcus is the fuckin' shit." And then there are folks who have been a little suspect of his decision making and ability to win big games, easily mentioning that we won the 2003 title with no arm at all, just a quarterback who managed the game and especially didn't throw two picks inside his own redzone at Florida (2004). There's really no one left on the JaMarcus Fence, indicative of how opinionated, dismissive, and greedy LSU fans have become since 2003.

Now, I present arguments for both sides, fitting as I stepped another rung onto the JR Fence this weekend:

The Bottom Five JaMarcus Moments:

Honorable Mentions:
JaMarcus gets his car stolen before the Florida game, and JR shows inexperience while getting pulled from a too-close-for-comfort Ole Miss game in 2004.

5. 2005 SEC Championship: 'Maicus ineffective, injured:
Russell was able to complete only 11 passes in the first half, in addition to a costly interception, as LSU appeared to run out of gas after an exhausting, thrilling, and meaningful regular season. The "Victory" Cigar was called from the bench as JR sustained a shoulder injury, and proved even worse, throwing an interception-for-touchdown on his first pass. Tigers lose, 34-14.

Why would Matthew complain? Dude's getting paced every night with no responsibilities. And he's probably going to get a few NFL tryouts based solely on the Peach Bowl.

4. JaMarcus can't find touch, keeps Tennessee in game:
Needing a meaningful road win in 2006, The Phenom still appeared to exhibit Favre-like problems by throwing short passes too hard, creating deflections and turnovers once again. Still, there was no deflection involved in the worst throw of his career, greatly overthrowing his intended receiver and creating a 31-yard interception for touchdown. Tennessee took a 17-7 lead in their home stadium.

3. Florida 2005: Costly turnovers keep Gators in game:
The Tiger defense did everything possible to shut down the ineffective Florida offense in Urban Meyer's first season, but JR continued to relinquish the ball at key points in the game, keeping an anemic offense within striking distance. Russell finished with two interceptions and a game-changing fumble.

2. Florida 2006: Even costlier turnovers (I sense a theme here):
JaMarcus's cannon produced two deflections and subsequent interceptions, displaying how little he has progressed in terms of putting touch on the football. Also, probably a completely different game if 'Maicus didn't put the ball on the ground at a first-and-goal from the UF 1-yard line. Final turnover stats: 3 INT, 1 Fumble, 1 inability to overcome mistakes.

Take a deep breath... JR only has to play Florida one more time.

1. Florida 2004: Russell pulled for Randall:
JaMarcus's first road start in an LSU uniform produced disastrous results. Despite an efficient showing in the first offensive series, key interceptions at the Florida 25 and 10-yard lines on consecutive series not only produced a 14-0 hole for the underdog Tigers, but forced Saban to pull JR for Marcus Randall. Marcus Randall is the savior for a night, and I'm forced to begin to defend myself, in a shrimper's costume no less.

Chili? I woke up in my dorm bed with the shrimper's costume still fully on, smelling like a nutria. Bacardi Limon times twenty.

The Top Five JaMarcus Moments

Honorable Mentions:
His performance off the bench vs. Iowa in the 2005 Capital One Bowl, a sterling showing against Auburn in 2005, and his engineering a game-winning drive against Florida in 2005.

5. Russell-to-Bowe I-- JaMarcus rallies LSU past Oregon State, 22-21:
In a game that featured the defending national champions slipping, sliding, and dropping their way to a potential stomach punch season opener, The X Factor was called from the bench to make his first appearance on an LSU playing field. The redshirt freshman's numbers weren't gaudy-- or impressive, even: 9 completions on 26 attempts-- but he replaced an inevitably ineffective Marcus Randall (just 5/15 in the first half) by returning to streetball roots. JR connected with Bowe on a slant pattern up the middle on the final drive to set up the same play for a thirty-eight yard touchdown. If you think Jimbo called the same play twice, you're crazy. JaMarcus improvises, Tigers win. Reportedly, Bowe told JaMarcus in the huddle, "Just give me the ball."

Wet field, purple jerseys, Beavers, Alexis Serna... just give me the damn ball.

4. 'Maicus ties the efficiency record: LSU 48 State 17:
In an otherwise rainy yawner, two things stood out: the lightining at the beginning of the second half, and JaMarcus's box score. Fats Domino's niece's beau was a stupid 13-14, 272 yards, and 3 TD at halftime. He ended the game similarly: 18-20, 330 yards, 3 TD, fourteen straight completions, tying the previous team record.

3. JaMarcus-to-Early seals post-Katrina road win over Arizona State:
A crazy "home" game in Tempe, AZ, less than two weeks after Katrina paced about 30 players' houses, JaMarcus and the offense carried the defense (how far we've come), amassing 434 yards of total offense in probably the most nerve-racking game I've ever watched on TV. The fourth quarter featured 42 points, the most important seven coming from JR's pass to Early Doucet on 4th and 10 (!) for a 39-yard touchdown with 1:13 left. This was the first of many gut-wrenchlingly close victories in 2005, a year in which we really played above our abilities. So proud of this team.

Of course he had possession. Don't question it.

2. Russell overcomes mistakes, leads game-winning TD drive at Neyland:
Maicus showed how far he has come since Florida 2004, making the usual big-game mistakes but showing enough maturity, toughness, and leadership to overcome them. Maybe the worst throw of his career was intercepted and returned for a touchdown at the beginning of the second half. None of that matters now, as Godzilla readily accepted the challenge, driving eighty yards, converting a key 4th-and-eight, and draining over seven minutes of game clock. JR two years ago would've never thrown the ball away on that first-and-goal; his patience paid off with a four-yard Doucet TD originally intended for Bowe. JaMarcus's line: 24-36, 247 yards, career-high 71 yds rushing, 3 TD, 3 INT. Beat chest twice, point to sky, repeat.

It looked as though the other twenty-one players on the field heard a whistle during JaMarcus's 34-yard run. I guess that's a compliment.

1. JaMarcus's Homecoming: Russell leads Tigers over 'Bama in OT:
After a sputtering first half on offense, JR led the Tigers to two consecutive scoring drives after halftime, eventually sending the game into LSU's third overtime period of the season. The defense was able to hold Brodie Croyle and the 'Bama offense to a field goal, while The Chosen One, an Alabama native, paced an eleven-yard touchdown to Dwayne Bowe for the win. And, yes, Bowe was just chillaxin' on the ground when he caught the ball; I think that is secretly Jimbo Fisher's favorite play. Memorable JaMarcus moment: after Bowe caught the touchdown, Bobby Lloyd's son just placed the mouthpiece back in his facemask, beat his chest a couple of times, and pointed to the sky, thus creating my typical celebration-- in all facets of life-- for the next fifteen years or so.

Look familiar?

It's definitely not a bad sign when three of your quarterback's five worst moments result in wins. So I'm climbing off the fence here. My JaMarcus love is as strong as ever.

Beat chest.

Beat chest.

Point to sky.

- P.T.

Bernoulli and the 2006 Bengal Tigers:

Say what you will about Les Miles and his in-game coaching abilities, but his 2006 Tigers have garnered an advantage each week before the game even starts. In what seems fitting for Miles's high-stakes, riverboat gambler mentality, perhaps his team's most impressive yet unmentioned quality is winning the coin toss. And it's happened in all nine games this season.

Me: "I think it might be time to bring back the purple pants for a game."
Les: "I'll do one. I'll do one."

Coin toss probability follows a simple Bernoulli distribution, which is characterized by an event having two distinct outcome possibilities, usually labeled '0' for failure and '1' for success. A general Bernoulli distribution follows

P(n) = p for n = 1.
P(n) = 1-p for n = 0.

Jeff Sagarin is unzipping his pants right now.

In the case of a coin toss, p = 1/2. Probabilities are multiplicative for separate events (tosses), so the probability of a successful coin toss m times in a row is denoted by:

P(1) ^m = (1/2)^m

Obviously, we are discussing a successful coin toss in m = 9 games this season, leaving

P = (1/2)^9 = 1/512 ~ 0.00195.

The Bernoulli distribution is by far the easiest discrete distribution in Probability and Statistics, even to the point that JaMarcus, Dorsey, LaRon, et al. have seemed to master the concept.

Skimming the box scores:

Week 1: UL Lafayette at LSU:
LSU's game captains were 2 JaMarcus Russell, 30 LaRon Landry, 41 Chris Jackson.
LSU won the toss and deferred to the second half.

Week 2: Arizona at LSU:
LSU's game captains were 16 Craig Steltz, 18 Jacob Hester, 41 Chris Jackson, 72 Glenn Dorsey.
LSU won the toss and deferred to the second half.

Week 3: LSU at Auburn:
LSU's game captains were 2 JaMarcus Russell, 33 Jason Spadoni, 41 Chris Jackson, 94 Chase Pittman.
LSU won the toss and deferred to the second half.

Week 4: Tulane at LSU:
LSU's game captains were 25 Justin Vincent, 31 Jessie Daniels, 41 Chris Jackson, 80 Dwayne Bowe.
LSU won the toss and deferred to the second half.

Week 5: Mississippi State at LSU:
LSU's game captains were 3 Craig Davis, 18 Jacob Hester, 41 Chris Jackson, 52 Ryan Willis.
LSU won the toss and deferred to the second half.

Week 6: LSU at Florida:
LSU's game captains were 2 JaMarcus Russell, 16 Craig Steltz, 30 LaRon Landry, 41 Chris Jackson.
LSU won the toss and deferred to the second half.

Week 7: Kentucky at LSU:
LSU's game captains were 7 Ali Highsmith, 19 Jonathan Zenon, 41 Chris Jackson, 77 Peter Dyakowski.
LSU won the toss and deferred to the second half.

Week 8: Fresno State at LSU:
LSU's game captains were 3 Craig Davis, 41 Chris Jackson, 80 Dwayne Bowe, 93 Tyson Jackson.
LSU won the toss and deferred to the second half.

Week 9: LSU at Tennessee:
LSU's game captains were 41 Chris Jackson, 72 Glenn Dorsey, 75 Brian Johnson, 94 Chase Pittman.
LSU won the toss and deferred to the second half.

So Matthew Flynn and CJ do go clubbin' together! Tyson tags along since Ceej is the only one who knows how to play craps.

So, yeah, Chris Jackson apparently runs the thing. Dude probably does chi-square distributions on the sidelines during his free time. Couldn't seem to find anything on the record (at any level of football) for consecutive coin tosses in a row. Chili dog. This is the closest I could come:

"The record for consecutive toss wins by one country is also 12 - by Australia {1998-99 in Pak (2), v Eng (5) and in WI (4); 1999-2000 in SL (1)}. The captains were MA Taylor (7) and SR Waugh (5)."

And Chris Jackson. That was from a cricket website, by the way.

Why even write a caption for this? And to think, ten months ago I hated facebook.

Les Miles has notched an 18-4 record since moving to Baton Rouge. His captains are 17-5 in calling the coin toss correctly. Coincidence? No, those five belong to the Vanderbilt, North Texas, Appalachian State, Ole Miss, and Miami-- all convincing wins. There, you've got your first resource devoting an entire article to this somehow unmentioned phenomenon. I can't wait till Marty Mule' tries to go all Fibonacci on us tomorrow.

- P.T.

I'm Not Complaining: Week 9 In Review:

I've tried my hardest the past two days at HTF to avoid any media that belittles Saturday's win-- we frickin' won at the eighth-ranked team's stadium-- but it's getting more and more difficult. For every sentence recounting JaMarcus's game-winning touchdown, there's one right after mentioning that the pass wasn't even intended for Early Doucet.

Hey, 'Maicus: nice job curing cancer. Too bad you were going after Parkinson's. Out of line?

It's no secret that I enjoy playing JaMaicus's Advocate to anyone (readers, my dad, Junckie), and Saturday might have been the start of a less-enthusiastic chapter in the story of Our Boy from Mobile. But that's a column later this week. I'm enjoying this top-10 road win, the second in as many years for Miles. Saban couldn't even get one.

In September, we faced a less talented but more mature Auburn squad on the road, playing a nearly perfect defensive game while realizing the growing pains of a complete running game transition. It had become the norm last year to expect mental and physical toughness in every big game, especially on the road. When the final score was less than positive, we cited as many as six controversial calls that may have affected the outcome.

It may take a few viewings to notice the weak photoshop in the background. Junckie's fingerprints are all over it.

In October, we travelled to then-sixth-ranked Florida, a team just finally filling itself out on offense. It was certainly a dream matchup for the Tigers, as Florida's secondary was suspect even to quarterbacks like John Parker Wilson of Alabama. JR had just strung together the best two-game stretch of his career. Several prognosticators noted that LSU, with similar toughness and execution displayed at Auburn, was the odds-on favorite. In a completely different fashion, we unraveled with five turnovers for the second year in a row against Florida. Even more stinging than the actual turnovers themselves, our lack of maturity and toughness to overcome mistakes became apparent.

November's trip to Tennessee marked a last-chance opportunity for the Tigers to establish an identity other than one involving the hollow destruction of bottom-fifty teams at home. It also represented "redemption" for Les Miles, as the decline of qualities like sharpness and maturity, staples of the Saban era, started to become evident. Otherwise, we were headed for an 8-4 record and the Outback Bowl, a season as lifeless as Pelini's grey sweatshirt.

Close enough. I love you.

Somehow, Saturday's game featured these three themes in one sixty-minute period. It was clear from the first few opening series for each team that the Tigers had a distinct talent advantage. We controlled the line throughout the entire game, limiting a usually uber-consistent running game to 62 yards. Our receivers were able to get free from coverage with apparent ease, although Buster and Bowe seemed to revert back to dropping the football (sell LASIK stock). The running game produced more yards (231) than the Auburn and Florida games combined.

I survived the JaMarcus Era, and all I have are about 65 images of touchdowns with receivers on the ground.

But then sure enough, turnovers at key positions on the field kept the less-talented home team in the game. Russell threw one of the worst passes of his career for a 31-yard gift to the defense, digging the second-half hole to ten. A usually sure-handed Bowe left the ball exposed during a fourth-quarter drive, essentially ending a chance to put the game away while setting up Tennessee's touchdown on the next play. A game in which we dominated time of possession (41 minutes to 19 minutes) and yards of offense (478 to 248) was entirely too close due to four turnovers.

Controversy also came when Tennessee's special teams appeared to clearly touch the ball on a punt dying in the endzone, allowing LSU defenders to scoop the ball up for a timely touchdown that would have given the Tigers a 14-7 lead in the second quarter. The punt was called a touchback on the field, and, indisputable evidence or not, SEC officials haven't developed the cajones to overturn major calls in home stadiums.

Engineer game-winning drive on road versus top-ten team. Pound chest with fist. Insert mouthpiece into facemask. I love you.

But we overcame everything, with JaMarcus engineering three drives-- two of them with ease-- when down by three or more. And, thinking back to last year as well, our identity might as well be this: we'll win big games about half the time, and when we do, we'll be sure to make it as difficult as humanly possible.

Can we give some credit to Jimbo Fisher here? Hey, Jimbo, we're going to need three drives that span the length of the field, one of which needs to go eighty yards to win the game.... not a problem. Hell, I'm impressed he had enough plays to keep the offense on the field for forty-one minutes (81 offensive plays total). Also, I don't think any team in the history of football has taken such a strong defense for granted this much; can you imagine how paced off Dorsey and Co. must have been when Bowe fumbled that ball at midfield? Oh, about enough to warrant a 54-yard touchdown pass on three DBs.

Somehow, the man recruits. 1998: "Hey, JR, text l8r. Mike DuBose hates black people!! : ) cya."

I was giddy Saturday night (8 shots of Bacardi Limon? Chili dog?), yes, because we won a big game on the road, but I'm pretty sure I still recognized the greater significance after countless Lone Stars. Saturday was like a final exam, a makeup of sorts, for us to prove that we're becoming tougher, more poised, and more mature-- enough to handle three direct scores off turnovers in a hostile stadium. That's all I really care about. Sometimes even the less-riveting seasons feature something pretty special.

Which LSU player is the football version of Bacardi Limon? I'm thinking Luke Sanders. Nah, it has to be Gaudet.

Also, we won the coin toss. (1/2)^9 probability, or 1/512. Why am I the only one talking about this? Math... football... this is the opportunity HTF has been waiting for.

- P.T.

Well I Woke Up Sunday Mornin' With No Way To Hold My Head That Didn't Hurt:

Keiland Fucking Williams. That's his name now... I can see LSUsports.net with 'goes by "Fucking"' in his biography by 2008.

- P.T.

Don't Blame Me Because I Feel a Little Pessimistic Today: Thanks, Facebook:

Darry Beckwith and Ryan Paul Harris are now friends. 7:05am

Chevis Jackson and Caleb Hartley are now friends. 4:07am

Marlon Favorite and Randi D. Flemings are now friends. 2:22am

Marlon Favorite and Terri Nicole Lorden are now friends. 12:51am

So when you see Chev give up a 50-yard touchdown pass today, you have a good idea as to why. Knoxville must not have much of a nightlife.

- P.T.

Wait, Forgot One Thing: Ah Came to UT Because I Thought It Was an Amazing Academic Institution:




I guess Neyland Stadium is pretty special: "you hear a crowd, you see students, you hear a band..."
- P.T.

So Who Exactly Is Healthy for Tennessee?: Week 9 Dose of Pessimism:

This week has seen its share of Phil Fulmer playing his best Belichick-esque role of coaching mastermind, nonchalantly mentioning nagging injuries which may keep some of his skill players sidelined. The highlights:

"Obviously Jonathan ... against the No. 1 defense in the country, that's not exactly how you want to start your career. He'll certainly get some time. Erik being a little bit on the gimpy side, although I believe he'll be fine to play, that's not exactly the kind of defense you want to go against."

"Erik did everything today, practically everything. That's a real plus. That's much improved from yesterday. Still don't have any solid say on exactly what we're going to do, but I'd say it looks like he's going to be able to play."

Not that difficult to find a good Philip image.

Aww, and we were just preparing for Crompton all week. I hate Philip Fulmer, and I'd put him on Tuberville's level if we were in the East. Yeah, despite all the injuries, Fulmer pretty much credits himself and his culture at Tennessee for instilling enough desire in the players to play through pain:

"I think it comes from the head football coach and from the coordinators and I think it comes from the upperclassmen leading the way as to how it's supposed to be. That's the way it's been since I've been here. It's what expected about how they go about their business. I'm not trying to ring my bell, but that's just the way I think."

Tennessee's really different from other major college football programs, you know, and their athletes are really tough and stuff. Heck, even Christopher Leak played through a concussion last weekend.

Google. Image.

Speaking of Ainge, I better not jump the gun or anything, but we embarrassed this guy last season, and it's not like Tennessee's offensive line has completely restocked itself. Before YouTube sold out, I watched the video of Ainge hastily throwing the ball away-- into the hands of Butkus Award Finalist Ali Highsmith-- to avoid a safety about 1900 times in the past six months.

2006 entries into the Erik Ainge Hall of Fame include Omarr Conner, Lester Ricard, and Andre Woodson.

Ainge is a completely different quarterback though, as the media keeps telling us, and he's also not playing in a crazed, post-Katrina tank of humidity. Tennessee's comeback from a 5-6 season last year was about as predictable as Fulmer upgrading to a 48 waist; just how legitimate this comeback is will be seen in the next two weeks. The Vols, apparently limited at QB and RB with nagging ankle injuries, have to turn around and play in Fayetteville, an underrated, then overrated, then underrated homefield advantage. Let the record show that Tennessee has beaten a much-improved California team who withered from the heat about two hours after the plane landed, a hapless Georgia team going through countless transitions, and Mike Shula on the road. The last two were close, even.



Still, I'm not optimistic; we might get out to an early lead, make enough mistakes to let Tennessee hang around, and give it away in the fourth. I don't know. We might get blown out, even, a statement game that finally makes me admit the Les Miles Era is not going to end well. I'm jaded after two losses-- one in which we played near-perfect save for one drive and a couple mental breakdowns, and one in which we played the worst game since Georgia '04. I writhed in anguish during the Auburn controversy; I threw stuff at Chevis Jackson's image on the TV then proceeded to move on-- as a fan, as a person-- before JaMaicus's second interception. The losses just don't sting as much when they keep happening.

This isn't a funeral, though. We can only hope to get 2007 contributors like Keiland Williams, Trindon Holliday, Brandon LaFell, Ricky Jean-Francois, and Dick Dickson some meaningful playing time in a 'hostile' environment. Neyland Stadium should theoretically be the loudest stadium ever, and Death Valley and the Swamp are mentioned about 15 times more.

A collection of 108,000 fans who sit on their hands when things aren't going well.

As much as I hated reading the articles about Les Miles being under fire, this really is a must-win game for his well-being in Baton Rouge, unless he wants some free luggage dumped on his lawn early Sunday morning. Fans, understandably, want a signature moment from 2006, an image to set as desktop wallpaper or story to tell ten years from now that didn't involve biased officiating. And those possibilities are becoming fewer in number as the season progresses. We couldn't win in Auburn, and couldn't 'settle' with a win in Gainesville. Of course, I'll 'settle' for a win in Knoxville, but if I'm settling for a rousing 31-21 victory over Iowa State in the Independence Bowl, something's wrong.

You'll always be the Poulan Weedeater Independence Bowl to me. Whatever, it'll be an excuse to spend a paced night with Fifty.

Jimbo Fisher plus a week off plus some additional freedom in offensive playcalls should translate into more creative schemes, such as Early Doucet lining up at quarterback. And it helps that Tennessee's front seven is probably the worst it's been in a long time (people forget they had linemen drafted after ast season), so running the ball up the middle might actually get four yards a couple of times. JaMaicus didn't have a particularly good game against Fresno State, so even the JR Theory aligns well. Don't blame me if I edit this paragraph on Sunday morning.

The prediction: Tennessee 20 LSU 17.

By the way, I'm not keeping a tally or anything, but I'm something like 1-8 with predictions this season. I halfway expected a 'Neer to ignite my couch in the middle of the night seeking revenge. It's not my fault that West Virginia put the ball on the ground about nineteen times and played their worst game in three years. Louisville in the title game? Luckily, FOX has assembled a broadcast team that can get anyone "fired up."

- P.T.

No Liveblog Today: Instead, I'll Drink Mad Dog Socially:

Tough decision, though. I can only imagine some of the things I'd type after two MDs with this diminished tolerance. Instead, I think I'll be a poser and drink Mad Dog with others.

I know, I know. Rather homosexual. Kind of gay, even, if you're a former LSU tight end now working MAC games for ESPNU.

You just don't Brokeback it on national TV. Also, special thanks to YouTube being all sellout and stuff now.

The prediction: West Virginia 40 Louisville 27

- P.T.

Hey, We Have a Football Team To Cover: Cleaning Out My TAF Emails:

I know, I know, it's been over a week since any direct mentioning of the Bengal Tigers. I'm rationalizing this game the following way: if we lose, this will be the best LSU team ever to not have a 'signature' moment... that's some consolation, right? It's difficult to come up with optimism when we've faced Auburn and Florida on the road at their respective peaks, and Tennessee just keeps finding ways to win in the fourth quarter. I'd like to say I'm a nervous wreck, or this game is all I can think about, or I'll be devastated if we lose, but I'd be lying. Time's running out for this talented team to make 2006 a halfway memorable season.

“The LSU crowd has the ability to make Tiger Stadium a powerful home-field advantage... Against Tennessee, I was disappointed they would boo their own team after all the players, coaches and community had gone through, and there were times they just weren’t loud.”
- Holly Rowe of ESPN

Hey Holly, who the fuck are you? We'll boo our team-- less than a month after Katrina, mind you-- whenever we please, thanks. Yeah, we'll let a brand-new coach know that he's not going to be able to Schottenheimer second halves in the SEC, or give up 21-point halftime leads to teams in orange jerseys. And, yes, it's tough to make noise when you're watching Rick Clausen throw at will in your team's home opener. Now go eat lunch with Shelley Smith everday, Holly.

Sam Ryan definitely makes fun of you behind your back. Even Berman wouldn't make eyes at you.

"I would tell guys to eat, and they’d say, ‘Coach, I’m not hungry.’ With all that was going on, they lost their appetites because of stress and everything."
- Team nutritionist Tommy Moffitt, on post-Katrina preparation last season

Uh, Tommy, might want to stay away from Alley Broussard for awhile. Also, from sports agents eyeing some of your best defensive players, inviting themselves over to your house, and getting arrested by campus police. How's this dude still with the team then? Yeah, you kind of fucked up, Katrina or not, if everyone was cramping during last year's Tennessee game.

Tell me somebody locked the 'Cat inside West Campus Apts. on Halloween night.

"With a mop of golden hair and a penchant for words like “awesome” and “dude,” Steltz fits the description of a free-spirited soul that might be found wandering along the California coast looking for the next big wave."
- The Advocate

Craig Steltz has earned himself a newspaper feature! It's basically hollow, though, and goes on and on about how hard Surfer Boy hits, along with the story of his brother playing fullback and Saban's courtship of a Jack Hunt 2.0 (but much better). Good read.

Gaudet: "Hey, surfer boy! You hit hard."

“I kind of blocked it out. But it’s something that ... I mean ... I could have prevented Chevis from having a muffed punt or something like that, or maybe it would have changed the outcome of the game or changed the momentum or something like that.”
- FS Country Daniels, on his non-block against UF

Yeah, something like that. Why are we still talking about this? Yeah, let's get Les to call out specific players not making plays in big games in his press conferences... that'll do wonders for team chemistry.

"He looked at me and he said, ‘What happened?’ I said, ‘I just froze. I don’t know'"
- Country

You're... still... my favorite... player...? Are we even that talented anymore? I want to be underrated again; let's go back to 2001.

So that's what J-C-D did during his couple weeks off.

"Bowe, who struggled with dropped passes as a sophomore and junior, is having his best season at LSU and is tied for the school record for career touchdown receptions (21). A reporter wondering if offseason LASIK surgery helped Bowe..."
- The Advocate

What is it with this LASIK story? This isn't even like some bushleague J.P. Sports halftime feature; this is The Advocate! Didn't we see this in, like, April?

Offensive Playbook, page 9.

"Davis shrugged off a question about LASIK surgery, saying he didn’t need it, but he admitted his natural vision isn’t the best. 'I have bad vision,' Davis said. 'That’s why I wear contacts.'"
- Buster to The Advocate

I'm really confident about our special teams, in any situation, if you're scoring at home. True, we are an injury away from pacing Daniel Francis back there, who's pretty much the conscious investor's Demetrius Hookfin. I think I've matured enough to avoid another joke about how easy it must be for Buster to get contacts in those big ol' eyes.

"But there's another "11" floating around this week, and that involves LSU's all-time performance at Neyland Stadium, the home of the Volunteers. There, the Tigers are 1-11-1."
- Times Picayune

As they say in SEGA Jam'mit: "Keep it comin'." I'll take a hearty helping of reverse psychology, or reverse jinx, or whatever, at this point. I'm desperate. Come on, Tigers, give me a reason to get excited about ordering my Cotton Bowl ticket.

Ever wonder what that white girl was doing just hanging out in the ghetto at, like, two in the morning? Still, she was the best of the three, I think.

"I won't know about Erik until we get to practice for the next couple of days, and then we'll see. If that's not to be, then I am fully confident that Jonathan Crompton will do just fine."
- Phillip "Cheee-eeese" Fulmer

Can I officially make fun of Jonathan Crompton yet? Granted, Tennessee's backup looked a Bart Starr in Baton Rouge last season, but what are the odds of that happening again? Jonathan Crompton, clipboard ninja.

Is that some peach fuzz coming in, Johnny? Better not say much, dude's wearing an Elite 11 shirt. Hey, we have an Elite 11 third-string QB!

“It actually was kind of bad toward the end of practice... If you’re running by, running routes, you can smell it real bad. You might just stop in your tracks and just cover your face up. They need to get rid of that. That’s foul.”
- Buster, on a busted sewer main discovered near Alex Box Stadium

This has been an unusual season.

- P.T.